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Precision Castparts Corp. Message Board

  • jordan4385 jordan4385 Aug 13, 2007 1:08 PM Flag

    why pcp down?

    Aloca up , boeing up, pcp down :(

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    • The Feds latest action in reducing the Discount Rate will help but I'm still thinking it will take a reduction in the Prime to convince the market that it's safe for investors to get back in with both feet. Plus, we still have more selling to go from the Hedge Funds as they still need to raise more cash to meet redemptions. And they are selling their winners cause that's where they have the profits and that's what buyers are looking to acquire.

      So, we could still see some retreating for a bit longer, probably mixed with some rallies. But volatility seems to be the name of the game for awhile. If you are here for the LT, then buying stocks like PCP, FLR, CRDN, DE and FWLT that have been beaten down is a winning strategy in my opinion. Unfortunately, I'm now about 90% invested since I've been buying back all the stocks I sold earlier and I'm running out of money in my IRA.

      I've saved some funds so I can add tech stocks to the IRA. Missed the best prices this past week on EMC, INTC and ORCL cause I was paying too much attention to the other stocks I wanted. So maybe on the next retreat I'll dip my toes into these waters.

      Still working the trading shares though with the likes of POT, TNH, CROX, NTGR and BOOM.

      Well, I see where the union contract has been signed and the strike is over (see PCP headlines).

      Good luck and have a great weekend!


    • In an illiquid market, the most liquid stocks also get hit pretty bad to fund redemptions. PCP falls into that category. This will all be over (when, I don't know, guesstimate is a couple of weeks) and then PCP will catch up to it's market value.

    • It is pretty easy actually. Some moron unloaded 165,000 shares at the open yesterday. I believe this has made a few of you want to take some profit off the table after seeing the stock go from 138 to 119 in a matter of 5 minutes. Those of you holding long will come out winners.

      • 3 Replies to davidtwenk
      • " I believe this has made a few of you want to take some profit off the table after seeing the stock go from 138 to 119 in a matter of 5 minutes. Those of you holding long will come out winners."

        My post was not in reference to PCP trades on 8/10 which is referenced here. Actually I added 200 shares at $120 on 8/10. My post was in reference to the steady decline that PCP has been on since 8/8. PCP is a great stock and longs will all come out winners once this market resolves all it's issues, finds a bottom and takes back off again.

        However, this market has me reconsidering my long position in PCP in favor of taking profits on the rallies and buying back those shares again on the inevitable retreat. I've already sold, bought back and sold again most of the other stocks I had prior to the subprime issues including DE, FWLT, CRDN, POT and TNH. Held on to PCP and FLR because I thought they would not be held hostage to the subprime problems like most other stocks.

        As a recent example, I could have sold my shares of PCP on 8/13 for anywhere from $134 to $137 and then bought them back yesterday for anywhere from $126 to $128. I'm using price examples that were reasonable trades.

        Risky? In a normal market, certainly. But, in a market made volatile by problems with subprime lending AND especially during a week when options are expiring, probably not. Unfortunately, I've already passed up a couple of opportunities and it may be too late now. If for some reason the market rallies hard today I may give it further consideration.

        Good luck,


      • i would not be to quick to call someone with 22 million in stock a moron

    • Perhaps one or more major holders has been forced to liquidate shares to meet redemptions or margin calls. That seems to be a reason for TIE on that message board. If that is the case, then fundamentals or charts will not be of value until the forced selling runs its course.

    • look at the DJI
      the more relevant question is why shouldn't PCP be down

    • I think its best not to get too caught up in petty day to day flucuations, especially if your thinking long term. If you just look at the gains for the past 52 weeks which are triple digits, then giving back a few pennies is no big deal,imo.

      PCP is fireing on all cylindars and as the analysts have all rose earnings estimates for '08 & '09 I feel the 2 questions left is if/when the stock splits and when/who the next acretive acquistion will be.


    • I was just wondering the same thing. Looking at the graph I would say that it is bouncing off the last resistance level of $132. I don't think we'll go below that level - we should be headed back up any time now. If we do break below this resistance then we could go as low as $126 - let's hope not!

      • 1 Reply to hydropowerus
      • Not sure why it's down on an up day. Only thing I've seen so far today is an email from Schwab saying they downgraded PCP in their Stock Equity Ratings from a "B" to a "C" primarily on valuation. Kinda ticks me off since I just added another 200 shares last week.

        May have to take some profits and watch and see where it goes from here. Avg price is $85 on all my shares except the 200 I added last week at $120. Hate to lose the profits I've acculumated. When things like this happen it's usually because someone knows something we don't although everything I've seen from the PCP earnings report and other reports says this is still a great LT hold even at these prices.

        Good luck,


    • Why not?