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  • docjoe999 docjoe999 Jul 12, 2009 6:06 PM Flag

    Peter Schiff

    It doesn't surprise me that so many people on this board actually buy this because I used to as well. I went to the New Orleans investor conference in 2006, and all they talked about was the weak dollar. Buy gold, sell the dollar was the mantra. Yawn.

    But this premise falls on its face when you look at the data.

    U.S. net worth is $350 trillion.
    GDP (country's whole "income") is $14 trillion, and the federal budget is $3 trillion.

    And we "owe" China $2 trillion.

    I use the term "owe" because China can sell its T bills and bonds to anyone it wants to. Schiff makes its sound like the Chinese are married to said debt as if China is the mature adult and the U.S. is the deadbeat brother-in-law.

    And the T bonds and bills Schiff thought China was so stupid for owning went through the roof in 2008 while everything else, including the Chinese stocks Schiff was so high on, tanked.

    FWIW, the anti-dollar folks were in hog heaven when there was some difficulty selling T bills and bonds a few weeks ago. On Friday, more U.S. debt was sold with huge demand.

    And Schiff is playing on fears when talking about U.S. debt. Whenever there is fear of default, the market price of said debt goes down.

    If the value of U.S. debt does in fact fall to 50 cents on the dollar and gold goes to $5000, the U.S. could quietly sell its gold and use the proceeds to buy back debt at 50 cents on the dollar. Lend China $2 trillion, buy it back for $1 trillion, and sell gold at its inflated prices to get that $1 trillion.

    Schiff's doomsday scenario sounds pretty damned good to me.

    I have posted something like this before and I will again. Which creates more stress on the dollar and federal budget? $20 trillion in debt with 10% interest or $10 trillion in debt at 2% interest.

    That Schiff has not changed his tune despite interest rates falling off a cliff on U.S. debt is not surprising to me. Lower interest rates means the government has to use fewer dollars to pay interest on said debt. And with deflation, said dollars buy more stuff. How much oil did a dollar buy you in 2008 compared to 2009?

    And of course, Schiff is another idiot thinking hyperinflation is just around the corner despite abysmal consumer demand and a higher U.S. savings rate.

    Leave it to Mish to knock Schiff's block out of the park,

    "Schiff did not invest for doom; he invested for a bull market that did not exist. He was wrong where it mattered most, protecting client assets. For this amazing feat, people think of him as a star."

    Politics is the art of taking money from the voters while making them believe you are actually serving them.

    His clients lost their butts in 2008 and all he did was produce youtube videos proclaiming how right he was. Sounds like Peter Schiff would be a perfect senator.

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    • When I saw him on TV and he was pushing gold and gold stocks and when they asked him how high will gold go he basically did this: bla bla $10,000. I don't remember the exact dollar amount he gave but I believe he said $10,000. So I jumped in and lost lot of money listening to that idiot!
      Him and that guy Rubbini are the biggest idiots in the solar system. Funny thing is that they are so quick to point out how everybody else is wrong and they are right but on close examination I found out everybody else was right and they were wrong! Like you said he produces video !
      Patriotric people don't try to cause panic!
      thank GOD Americans are lot smarter than that!

      • 1 Reply to karm_joshi
      • Just because you bought gold on his recommendation and it went down he is an idiot ??

        You had better wake up... and fast. No investment is immune from going the wrong direction. If that were so there would not be two sides of any market, and everybody would be a millionaire.

        Peter Schiff cleary lays out his case in his books, and it makes perfect sense. When will it happen. Nobody knows. Just like nobody knew when the stock market would bottom, and nobody knows whet it will run outta steam on it's current run.

        Gold investments are long term investents. We are approx. half way through a 18 year commodity bull market. Gold has far outperformed the S&P over the last 9 years since the commodity bull market began. Perhaps you would have done will to be so smart to get on board years ago.
        However, there is still time, just don't expect gold to perform while there is a correction going on... like there has been for the last year.

        Good luck to you whatever you do, but Peter is no dummy.

    • <<U.S. net worth is $350 trillion.>>>


      Please provide links and/or itemize.

      that's one big pile of crap IMO.

      Over a million per person?

      Sell, sell sell!!!!

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