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Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras Message Board

  • musketeernumberone musketeernumberone Mar 26, 2010 11:32 AM Flag

    Tough to make a buck in this market

    Trend seems to be up, but its not showing in my portfolio... My best performers are the walking wounded: C and F

    A great stock with great prospects, STX, gets downgraded and loses 5%; a great stock with great prospects, RIMM, gets upgraded and rises 2%.

    Tech is the talk of the town but the stocks are not doing much: ORCL down after posting a v good Q, INTC sells for $22, worth closer to $30; QCOM popped on an upgrade yesterday, down today.

    Materials are in the breeze, up one day, down the next. Steel and Iron up, Coal down...

    Energy stocks trending down...

    EMs taking a breather, except China popped today erasing my gains from 2x-short, FXP...

    Whats a poor boy to do? Buy Greece? LOL

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    • ---"Trend seems to be up, but its not showing in my portfolio..."

      Man! I thought to be alone but I'm on the same boat as you.

      From March '09 all markets have rallied to what apparently seems a 60% return as cheered by all financial media...But I sadly admit that I've only made a few hundred Dollars and nothing more.

      Reality is...That only few people and even few market Pros have made money on this "Lifetime Opportunity".

      The fact is that I bought ( as many people did ) some stocks at yearend 2008 at what seemed "ridiculously low prices" only to see them dip precipitously at the begining of 2009.

      You see...The market punished all "goldseekers" with a further 25%-30% drop from what seemed super-bargains levels.

      An example:

      I bought some GE at $20 after W. Buffett bought the stock and warrants for about 22 or 23, I thought that buying at $20 I would have a good "margin of safety" to go into it, and been the stock at about $40 at the end of 2007 it was a "50% discount" from prior highs . But I watched GE precipitate to 5 bucks within 2 or 3 weeks then after...I was able to average it down to $13 and then finally went out few months ago at $16 when I realized ( always watching the whole market strong performance ) it was dead money.

      You listen about some market pros and hedge fund managers doing 30%-40% and even 50% returs on this market but talking about it to a friend that manages a little one, he told me that their "trick" is that they're SO leveraged that they only needs a handful stocks performing 10% or 20% ( easy to do if you got the money to buy much and average a good price ) but they really get this performance on the "Dollar Amount" of the portfolio. These funds are clocking "Time Bombs"...If they have $1 million in real capital but are exposed to $5 or $10 million with leverage they easily do 50% percent return on the original $1 million.

      • 2 Replies to misterx.herrx
      • I gotta disagree with ya. First of all what musk was saying about it being diffucult to make any money was in recent weeks or even days... not this past year.
        If you could not make any money in the last year it's because you bought while the market was still going down. December 2008 was bottom for some issues, but not at all the broad market lows. If you had bought GE at $6... you be up more than 60%, try more than 200% .... right ?
        You can't agrue that the market is up 60% ... but it was difficult to money. Many many many issues are up well over 60% from the bottom, some hundreds of percent.
        Talk apples and apples, not apples and oranges.

    • "Trend seems to be up, but its not showing in my portfolio... My best performers are the walking wounded: C and F"

      I hear you. GFA has been acting weak lately, but my "walking wounded" pick - AIB - has been on fire. Unfortunately, I didn't buy more.

      "Whats a poor boy to do? Buy Greece? LOL"

      Funny! I am holding Greek telecom OTE, however. It serves a diversified market, has an excellent balance sheet, and is at a nice low price right now.

      Spain has taken it pretty hard on the chin as well: I also own STD (one of the most stable banks in the world with a big presence in Brazil) and SNF which currently yields 10%.

      Have a good weekend!


    • Best strategy is to buy with a long term perspective. Imagine the value of PBR is 5-10 years. I buy this one and sleep easy. If it drops 20%, I know it will recover and also offers chance to buy more at a better price.

    • PBR and BBD have been extremely weak in the past few weeks, PBR with all these things about raising money on the market and BBD because it sold a huge amount of bonds and the bond holders will turn around and short the stock to hedge their positions.

      I've seen similar action on my portfolio, since I own lots of Brazilian's stocks.

    • It's a strange market, I'm seeing many issues near the lows of the day... including PBR. Market still very overbought, check out the slow stachastic in the chart below, been riding the top for over a month, just turned down.,fs&c=

9.11-0.08(-0.87%)Aug 26 4:01 PMEDT