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Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras Message Board

  • musketeernumberone musketeernumberone Sep 2, 2010 12:24 PM Flag

    Suggestion to the Board

    The long-timers here understand that many on this board are interested in more than just PBR... Over the years we have discussed Latin America in general, Global Economics, US Politics, etc. Usually with a view to enriching, and entertaining, ourselves.

    Some pundit once said: There is always a bull-market somewhere. Cool, so where is it? I, for one, remain interested in improving my investment results. To do that, I need to know what is working for other people....

    I have watched my position in Intel get beaten down, while totally ignorant of the fact that Netflix stock has been on a rocket to the Moon. Have you been long Netflix? You shoulda been...

    I have been in and out of ASYS -- a semiconductor equipment company serving the solar power industry. The numbers are good, the stock doing even better. My MLP holdings are near multi-year highs... they are working for me now. I just picked up TOO, an energy transport company yielding 9% with a load a cash to spend having just completed a secondary. It is working now.

    So what is working for you? I, for one, would really like to know....

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    • I dont post much,but read and follow you and especially DocJoe who is the smartest guy of all the coversations I read on internet stock boards. I have invested heavy in the Bakken fields of North Dakota BEXP EOG KOG AXAS SNS. North Dakota produces as much oil presently as does ALASKA. BEXP and EOG are already establishd oil companies There is a lot of money to be made here among the smaller ones. My wife and I used to go to Brazil a lot especially Buzios which was lovely 5 or 6 years ago. Find Brazil less safe now.

      • 2 Replies to joe.antelo
      • Welcome aboard, Joe.

        I live here and, in my experience, Buzios (and Brazil in general) is safer now than 5 years ago... There is much more wealth, less desperation among the poor, less open drug-dealing, etc.

        GL with your energy investments. I would expect a bumpy ride with a long term up-trend. NG-oriented producers are likely to under-perform -- until we figure out what to do with all that gas. Look into Coal - it supplies a large portion of our electricity, demand is firm and growing globally, the stocks took a dive in the fall but seem to be recovering a bit right now.

      • <I dont post much,but read and follow you and especially DocJoe who is the smartest guy of all the coversations I read on internet stock boards.>

        Thanks, Joe. I have been tres busy the last week and will get posting again.

        Bakken is a big deal. U.S. oil production has been surging since 2008, and no one is talking about it. We are nearing 6 million bpd of production, a number last hit in 2000 in large part bc of Bakken.

        Of course, you will still have the oil nuts proclaiming the usual supply and demand rules don't apply to oil: Oil has "peaked" and demand is "inelastic".

    • and am more value than "growth". Nonetheless, the two stocks, that will probably go down more before they go up, that are ridiculous buys right now are the hard drive makers, Seagate and Western Digital. Symbols are WDC and STX.

      They are spotting PEs of 3.5 and 4.4 respectively, and no I am not making that up.

      Both balance sheets show the companies have more cash than long term debt.

      In fact, WDC has 10X as much cash on its books as long term debt, so I like WDC much better.

      I think you are looking more for new tech than old tech, the fast growers like GOOG and APPL. If you look at WDC chart, it stinks, but I look for stocks that are wrongly punished, at their 52 week lows more than the 52 week highs. My question is always, are they rightly and wrongly punished?

      The reason that WDC and STX stock prices are down is the feeling that hard drives are dead, and flash drives are the future. Flash drives are not exactly new, and you would expect to see a slow down in sales. That is not the case; WDC sales have never been stronger.

      The cost of a 64 GB flash drive is $350. For the same amount of money, you can get 100X the storage capacity with a hard drive.

      Peter Lynch said that you wanted to be in "dying" but still profitable industries because no one else is going to enter that market. No one is going to open up a company that makes hard drives bc the perception is that they are dead and decaying. Meanwhile, there are already dozens of tablets ready to compete with the Ipad.

      MSFT is interesting here too, but it looks to me to be about 20 or 30% undervalued while WDC should be double or triple the price of what it is today. However, knowing how stocks move I would expect it to continue to fall until January of next year.

      • 1 Reply to docjoe999
      • Thanks, Doc. I still don*t get what what is working for you now, but I agree with you and a variety of fronts:

        Disk Drive makers -- I have been in and out of STX. Recently it has been unjustly punished and I think it an excellent investment when a) market sentiment turns, b)investors realize that demand remains fairly robust thanks to EMs, and c)solid state drives become part of their product mix through acquisition or internal development. Look at SSD (flash) maker STEC... could me an interesting play.

        I like AAPL for reasons discussed previously. I am concerned about GOOG... they are trying to do too much, have missed some important opportunities while frittering away their resources... A one-hit wonder? Search has been a bases-loaded home-run, so what is next... Open-source mobile device software? Fala serio!

        MSFT is a dinosaur... the stock is where it was 5 years ago and I do not see anything on the horizon to drive it up... well maybe they should fire the CEO, double the divvy and milk the thing dry. Nobody is holding their breath waiting for Windows 2015.

    • I'm up about 225% now in DECK. The high end retailer's are an interesting story. PCP I'm up 70%. ISRG up 53%. AAPL and GOOG, ENDP, all looking good also. I own too many stocks lol. These are all old positions that make up my core.

      I recently bought INTC for the dividend,when divy was 4%, I'm up about 13%. I feel like it's a locked in profit...a buy and hold. I also recently bought NUE for the yield.....about flat on that position so far.

      recent additions:
      CMI down 3%
      CTSH up 9%
      COH up 7%.
      FFIV up 15%
      MA up 7%

      What has hurt me lately?....all the cyclicals I own(FCX,CLF,SSL,MOS)down on average 20% in those positions.

      I'm in EBIX at 15. up 6%. Scary stock but great story....not for the faint of heart. It has held up better than my cyclicals.

    • Lately, Jr gold co's have worked best for me.

      And the Sr's haven't been bad either.

      As to most everything else, nothing much to say but I remain patient.

      Especially with my shorts in RE and CRE related stuff.

      Always some cash looking for new ideas in jr resource stocks.

      Copper not the big negative (with a gold deposit) that it once was so NG still worth a look.

      Heck, Chanos even owns it!!!

      Ding ding ding.


      • 1 Reply to winsabokk
      • Thanks, Wins.... I have been interested in Gold but have not made any move, I do not believe we are in for inflation and thus do not see why gold should continue to rise. When risk comes back into vogue, gold holders better look out below.

        I have been in and out of NG stocks... as you know. NG sells at an historically low price in the USA... near the cost of production. We are awash in supply. I am long, losingbut holding my NG positions because there is clearly a market for NG producing properties and the companies that control them... the oil majors, hedge funds and international investors are moving into the space, and that is good. I also like the prospects for companies that use NG (low price), transport it (growing demand) and have alternative uses for it (NG cars, buses and trucks).

        Currently long CHK, CLNE, various pipeline MLPs. Trader in WPRT, FSYS, HP.

    • thanks for sharing that musk . i put up my strategy just days ago , i am also down 15% on intel since buying it, not selling now that is for sure.
      I will tell you if my plan worked in 5 years , not before that. gl/

    • Great stuff, RG, Thanks... Lemme digest and get back to you...

      I am intrigued by your views on mega-cap names... AAPL and GOOG have joined this club and that may put a ceiling on their stock prices.

    • Hello musk

      I'm certainly no technology guru. I only know what I research and what I read. Musk, it's all what I've read in the past few months... no proof of how it is monetized. And some of what I read is somewhat ambiguous. At some point I'm just relying on the information from others since I really don't have a grasp on cloud computing. I wish I could tell ya. It appears that not all that much yet of the top line revenues can be credited to the cloud segment. If you look at the PE's of the players in the space, nobody seems to be getting rich yet...but that is expected to change.

      I'll post a couple of links here to verify what I have been reading. Can I tell you how GOOG will monetize "cloud" ... no. I can tell you that GOOG, IBM AKAM & VMW are considered to be the three biggies in the space. GOOG has very solid alliances with VMW, who has the top rated virtualization software.There are many many other players, more than 300 to be more specific. I'll go with the mid-caps of VMW & AKAM CTXS & RAX. Salesforce(CRM) also seems to get allot of play on the stock, it just seems pricey at this point in time on a PE basis, but I thought the same at $80. I also like EMC(even though they are large cap) as they own around 80% of VMW.

      About AMZN, what I understand is the Amazon was a pioneer in USING cloud computing to improve their own business. Amazon is a retail company... not a tech company. As I understand it, Amazon is selling the tools and building blocks to capitalize on the cloud computing change to the internet that is coming our way, but not actually involved in the technology itself... I might be wrong.

      I don't play with IBM OR GOOG because I don't like market capitalizations. I don't buy XOM INTC or MSFT for the same reason, not into mega-caps. But I do wished I had stuck with AAPL & AMZN some time ago.
      But I'll say this, if enough folks tell ya that Exxon is the biggest public oil company in the industry, and ya verify their financials, do ya really need to go out and visualize theri oil reserves ?

    • BTW-

      I stretched the facts when I say I don't buy mega-caps stocks. I do own and trade them from time to time... they are just not as sexy to me.

      I've owned plenty... obviously I've owned PBR previously, and am holding TEVA & BP as I write this... so there are some exceptions when I have reason.

    • LOL...!!!

    • What's working for me ? PDS bought at 3 now at 10 n change slowly movn baack to its high payn off debt n CVX have held for 5-6 yrs. Can't go wrong there .Solid company solid stock.

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