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Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras Message Board

  • musketeernumberone musketeernumberone May 31, 2011 3:59 PM Flag

    Nuclear vs Hydrocarbons vs Solar

    Solar stocks are hot today - pun intended. Maybe they moved on the news that Germany is getting out of nuclear energy. This is huge b/c it suggests that renewable sources will attract even more attention in the form of mandated share, subsidies, investment and innovation.

    NUKES - Its hard to be optimistic about the future of nuclear energy. I am no expert, but the risks are all too apparent. We can all see where Japan and Germany are headed. Imagine the industrys pain should a nuclear plant melt-down in France.

    OIL - will remain our major energy source in the near term, but there finally seems to be a determined effort (political will, technological innovation, investment) to develop alternatives. Oil will serve a declining share of energy consumption, and be diverted to its many other uses (petro-chemicals, etc.) Of course, prices could rise -- or fall -- depending on supply, demand, geopolitics, etc.

    NG - will serve an important bridge from the petroleum economy to green energy. It helps that much NG is a by-product of the search for oil, but the discovery of massive shale deposits and the development of tech to extract the gas suggests that NG will play a growing part of the global energy mix for the next century.

    Solar -- is at the cusp... costs are declining due to large scale production and technological innovation, it will likely be a financially viable alternative to oil within 5 years.

    Wind, tide and other recurring sources of energy may be behind solar, but they hold immense promise. LED is a technology that could transform lighting and vastly reduce the associated costs.

    SO, do we, as investors, put our money on oil, NG, or new energy technologies?

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