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Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras Message Board

  • musketeernumberone musketeernumberone Jun 16, 2011 9:48 AM Flag

    Good Read 4 LED Investors

    Price will drop radically, volumes will surge and suppliers to the manufacturers (AIXG, VECO, RBCN, SOLR) should do well.

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    • Musk,

      Looks like they like some names we have picked. You have ALTR and I have GOOG and EBIX. I still think AAPL is a great buy despite what anyone says.

    • Send us the rain if at all possible! We could use it.

      Ok, cheers.

    • Yep, I guess it is all about timing the cycle. I'm just not good at it.

      I'm not familiar with BEAV. I'll check them out.

      ISRG has had a big move so it is probably getting pricey.

      I got IRBT at around 30 so I'm up almost 20%. It made a big move......everything did! It is pricier now obviously. I just like the MIT background of management.

      CTSH has been a long time holding for me, I added. EBIX I'm in at around 15. A black swan hedge published some BS and pulled the price down. Management has since started a 100million buyback.

      CMG is certainly a better play. Just too pricey now imho. It is probably a better choice if it gets cheap someday...

      Happy 4th, Sorry you got rained out. We are going make some hot dogs now!


    • Thanks for your reply, Jaq.

      I agree with your assessment of these semi companies... who is gonna win? Who knows? OTOH, nobody has a dominant position like INTC, but that has not helped their stock; Maybe a dominant, deep moat doesnt matter. In fact, the key to semi- investing is probably cyclicality. On that basis the sector is probably a hold or even a sell at this time.

      Misc thoughts:

      PCP - good play on aicraft demand. Are you familiar with BEAV?

      ISRG... wow! a 50% move YTD! Strength! Am I too late to get on board?

      IRBT - interesting idea, but PEG is 1.4. Maybe the growth is there, maybe not. Seems a likely target for a larger defense contractor. I thought the japanese were dominating conumer robotics applications

      Ebix and CTSH: I have never had much luck with software consulting companies or vendors linked to a specific industrial vertical, only with dominant players (e.g. orcl, goog), or companies acquired by a larger player. The problem is: These companies are not only battling each other, they are battling the IT departments at their clients. and they are subject to the business cycle of these clients. When/if the client grow big enough, they develop their own software. It comes down to outsourcing. Fine, good idea. So why not buy an Indian software outsourcing company..

      Tim Horton - I am not familiar with the concept, but restaurants are a pretty competitive, low margin, high fixed cost, labor intensive business. Chart looks amazing, though. Why them and not, say CMG?

      GL, Happy 4th. Rock on!

    • Hi Musk and RG, Happy "Bastille Day" lol just kidding. Happy 4th. I still reading about the revolution in Brazil....I need to learn the history.

      As for the led and semis in general, I still don't have a good sense of who will be the leader/best of breed in that space so I have stayed away. RBCN does look excellent on a valuation basis.

      I do like MOS as you had mentioned. I'm sticking with larger companies for now. Trying to reduce some risk with lower beta names.

      My thing is management and brand recognition. That's why I like AAPL and GOOG, ISRG, CTSH, PCP,SAM, DECK, CLF, FCX,. EBIX is a smaller outfit with high short float but great business model and first mover/moat status.

      New positions for me are IRBT, FCX, and AKAM(yep, AKAM s is scary). IRBT, I like the robot thing. I'm trying to find companies with moats or first movers or brand loyalty.

      As much as I like the solar/led story, I just don't know who will be the leader.

      Companies I'm now looking at MOS, FFIV, ICE, RDY, BMRN, maybe THI? I need about 5 more positions for finish out.

      Since I don't short, I can't do and pairs trades. I like your thesis though. You understand their businesses better than I.

      Cheers all and happy days!

    • Thanks for the input. My BBQ got rained out today :(

      AXTI provides material to semi manufacturers. I think you have mentioned before. Got slammed earlier this year, seems to have made a 30% move back up. Interesting.

      I am not sure there is a bottom in yet for CREE... what makes you say so? Chart is just down, down, down. Fundamentals difficult. What turns it around?

      TEVA is a buy and keep for me. Stock has been a dog but I like the market position and global growth opportunity. Hopefully when recent acquisitions are digested the stock will take off. POT and MOS are always interesting, though weak lately... maybe a good buying opportunity. Go AAPL.

    • Happy 4th to you .... in

      I don't have much feeling on that trade. Personally I don't think CREE has that much more downside. I was thinking to purchase in this area... but I'm not in a hurry, I'll wait. I still prefer VECO to all of them.

      I do like UCTT, and I'm still holding AXTI.

      Mostly still day trading, but holding some POT TATA TKC LVS AAPL LNG MOS ARW
      Finally dumped the TEVA, will probably move up now. I gotta laugh about that one. I shorted at $64... and covered at $61... when long at $60.... can't winem all.

    • Thanks Musk! Good article.

    • Looks great... can't find a thing wrong with it, just needs a good share price pullback.

    • Thanks for the link

      CREE actually finally hit my price target yesterday. However, last night I did some charting and decided to lower my buy price down around $33.
      It may take a while to get there... if at all. But if the broad markets remain weak, CREE might see the lower $30's.
      I still like VECO because the company is not limited to the LED industry.

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