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Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras Message Board

  • jaquecroissant jaquecroissant Sep 15, 2011 2:58 PM Flag

    XSD? Musk what do you think?

    Musk, anyone, is it time to buy the semis? I've seen all the solor chips get hammered. Look at AIXG today! VECO, RBCN.....I still don't like those.

    How about OVTI?

    To be honest, I will personally stay clear of any individual semis accept INTC which I own for the 4% yield, but an etf might make sense. Musk, I know you have used that leveraged semi etf. Personally, I don't like using those leveraged ones but that is just me.

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    • Whoops! Misspelled "solar"....My bad.

      • 1 Reply to jaquecroissant
      • So, I trade semis with USD, a 2x leveraged ETF with, strangely, a bit less volatility than XSD. If you want to be long a diversified portfolio of semis, these are good vehicles.

        So what do I think of being long semis right now?

        - I think they are cheap if the economy holds, but may not have reached bottom if recession sets in. Companies are announcing downward guidance, which is not good, but the market does not seem to care. I am currently *underweight* pending more clarity on the direction of the market into the fall.

        - I do have a core position in TSM which is up nicely today and has a 3.5% yield.

        - Recently added SNDK which has been on a tear... Flash memory is becoming ubiquitous and will, at some point, replace disk drives. They say that the industry has not over invested in capacity and that pricing should firm.

        - INTC is now a steady eddie with a nice divvy. They own the server and desk-top space, but have not done as well with mobile/cell-phone. A good, relatively safe, choice.

        - Cant imagine buying anything related to LED right now. Sell-off has been brutal, but fundamentals are weak with excess capacity due to bid screen TV slow-down. I remain convinced that we will see a revolution in lighting technology over the next 5-10 years. Low energy-consuming, low heat-producing, digital lighting is a no brainer. As for how to make money? We shall see...

        - We have had a pretty brutal summer sell off, but it feels like the market wants to go up. Sept and Oct should be interesting. Nov and Dec could be great for stocks in general, and semis in particular, if the news flow improves and/or we get further stimulus.

        - I am cautious and, like RG, have my finger on the sell button. But I did recently buy UYM (beaten down chemicals and industrial materials), ACI (coal), BX (asset manger with 3% yield) and MOS (ferts). I am partially hedged: short euro via EUO and emerging markets via EEV.

        - I remain long AAPL and GOOG. If markets turn decisively up, I like Semis, HOGS (chinese pork processor), brazilian banks ITUB and BBD, Coal (ACI, BTU, PCX, WLT), maybe some energy service names.

        GL

 
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