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  • jaquecroissant jaquecroissant Nov 28, 2011 1:08 PM Flag

    Black Friday+Cyber Week=!!!!

    And people thought the US consumer was dead? #$%$ Don't tell my wife she can't shop lol! She could keep the whole US economy out of a recession lol!:)!:)! I'm keeping her away from Hermes....gotta save that for later.....she can go to Target instead lol.

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    • Whoa, Jaque.

      Your wife has credit and liquidity but she can't do it alone!

      I won't argue a nice day in commods and stocks generally but the US consumer IS dead.

      Ditto for the Euroland but not so much the EM's.

      One day of shopping is hardly a good indication of the whole Xmas season.

      heard an interesting bit from Berman.

      He thinks that boomer demographics are really starting to bite on the whole Xmas attitude and spending thing and he thinks that a lot of the spending we are seeing now is about people spending on themselves because Xmas provides all the bargains.

      We'll see how the trends go but I'd be very surprised if retailers can keep up this momentum....especially once the boomers have finished shopping for themselves.


      • 1 Reply to winsabokk
      • I agree that Europe is and will be a mess.

        I also agree that my wife can't keep the US afloat by herself lol.

        Big picture, In my opinion nothing has changed. The world hasn't ended yet. Hedge Fund managers would like the public to think so. I'm thinking way out....10+ years. EM's and China still where the growth is, stay away from long dated US treasuries, buy stocks with high growth and low valuations. Inflation will be the problem, not deflation. Buy GARP stocks.....very easy to screen for. Take advantage of the volatility the bots have created rather than fight it. Since I hold longer than most on this board, I can find values and hold for years. This is where the correlations fall apart and the winners prevail. This doesn't show up in the short run but it does over 6 months to several years.

        I can only buy what is on sale now. Too hard to try and predict/play demographics. Too many variables and surprises. Even Newt seems to be for immigration. I bet we let in more people to fill in the gaps even if it's politically incorrect.

        Ok, I'll drink to that lol.

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