Musk, My only problem with the market now is that is has made such a nice move. I have lots of stocks that are working but I'd be very hesitant to add to my winners since there valuations are getting stretched. I do have a few that I feel are reasonably valued now such as DECK(still sitting on a multibagger even after the recent selloff).
DECK Appears to be one of few cheap opportunities out there currently. Peg of .88 as of this moment.
http://beta.fool.com/mhenage/2012/02/28/deckers-long-term-view/2431/?source=eogyholnk0000001 Good article. Currently DECK scores near the top of my screen. The fundamentals have actually gotten BETTER after the last qtr and it has since moved higher up on my screen.
Others that are reasonable now are CLF, MOS, FCX.....jmho.
But for the most part I was buying when everyone was scared to death over the last 6 months to a year and it did pay off:
In general, I'm finding it harder to find the kind of cheap valuations I like so I will not add to any positions or take new positions until we have a correction.
MOS and FCX are similar to PBR - they just aren't moving. Good valuations but lousy price action.
I agree with the person who posted about sitting on the sidelines in cash (or the trader who recomended doing so). I play a little here and there on pullbacks but am out quickly.
KERX, a small biotech.
Phase III trial in colon cancer pending, results in the next 2 months. In my opinion, there is a high chance for success.
I enjoy reading your non-PBR posts on this site, except about Israel.
Thanks, RG, great list:
lvs - Looking good!
cree - Stock is doing great but I cannot figure out why given the weakness in the sector. Think I may go with some names that have not made such a big move in recent weeks. Congrats.
eog - Wow, quite chart. Am I too late?
jazz - Love the chart, the numbers, the business will buy this tomorrow.
This is from Jeff Clark, super short term trader,
"I was reminded of this yesterday when I looked in the mirror and noticed a bruise forming on my forehead. A few hours earlier, I had pounded my forehead on my desk as the S&P 500 defied gravity and made another new high for the year… despite multiple warning signs from the Volatility Index, Summation Indexes, sentiment indicators, and many other technical indicators.
Just about every indicator I follow is waving the "caution" flag. Yet price action is undeniably bullish.
For a trader, there really isn't anything to do here. This is one of those times where the sidelines look like the most comfortable place to be. Stocks are far too extended and there's just too much risk to be overly exposed to the long side of the stock market. But the momentum and price action are too strong to justify aggressive short positions.
The best strategy is to wait for the market to play out the same script from last year. A 5%-8% decline will be enough to relieve most of the overbought conditions and eliminate the "warning" signs on most of the technical indicators. And it'll set the stage for a late spring-time rally to new yearly highs on the major stock indexes… Just like what happened last year."
My thesis is that investors will finally realize that the global economy is growing below expectations.
- Hard commodities and energy sell-off
- Multinationals sell-off
- Staples do OK
- US mid-cap and cloud/IT do OK
- Communications,esp. cellular complex, do OK
Maybe we get a bounce after. The rough patch will come around the elections, as investors concentrate on the impending budget cuts, stimulus reductions, etc... all of which will hurt the economy unless politcal compromise allows a more intelligent/rational path to emerge... fat chance.
They don't seem to be cheap and this one doesn't make any money, but it is on fire:
CLNE, which you have been touting too Musk, had doubled this year as well, but they aren't making any money either.
This is but another reason I think the market rally is fake. These stocks should be making money big time, but they aren't.
Seems like we have some profit taking/consolidation going on. I have seen MOS come off a bottom recently. Hopefully it's a bottom lol.
Near time volatility is low but if you look out to April, May,...summer, They expect volatility to return. Arwen may be right at that point in time.
Personally, I'm not adding till we get a nice "slow stochastic" signal....could be months, who knows for sure.