Hi Musk and everyone. Here is my case for buying DECK now. First off, I'm a rules based investor. I follow pretty strict rules as you know. I don't buy any stock with a ttm p/e over 30 so I rarely buy momentum stocks. I was lucky to get into ISRG back when the p/e was around 29 about a year and a half ago. ISRG was the exception in that it got cheap enough for me to buy. History has shown that paying more than 30 ttm p/e usually is ok but it's the max. If you pay 50 or higher, you usually get burned if you plan to hold for more than 5 years. OK, back to how I screen.
My screen has no valuation metrics in it whatsoever, only growth factors. I than "post screen" if you will for value afterwards. I want the highest growth rates possible in the 1yr(for recent positive activity)and 5yr for historic since most good companies have been around for awhile. The 1yr data ensures that things are NOT cooling off.
5yr book value growth = +31.13% 5yr eps = +44.92% 5yr cash flow growth = +46.59% 5yr rev growth = +35.24% 5yr ROI = +22.60% 1yr ROI = +27.30% EPS ttm vs prior ttm = +25.91% REV growth ttm vs ttm = +37.59%
ttm p/e =13.1 peg = .67 D/C = 0
Deckers scores an 88 on my screen. As you will see, DECK is in the company of stocks like AAPL, QCOR, LULU, BIDU, and PCLN. I only look at stocks that score an 80 or higher. I avoid certain stocks such as Chinese names because of my own uncertainty and distrust.
Here are the current names and scores:
QCOR 95 BUY AAPL 93 BUY LULU 92 WAIT, too expensive BIDU 91 WAIT, too expensive APEI 90 BUY CYOU 90 use caution, Chinese TNH 90 wait CF 90 wait EDU 90 use caution, Chinese PCLN 89 slightly expensive, but good buy under 30 p/e DECK 88 BUY
My screen scores down to 50. I only look in the top percentile. Stats show this works. They are above average. You do especially well if you don't overpay.