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Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras Message Board

  • musketeernumberone musketeernumberone Apr 18, 2012 6:17 AM Flag

    GARP Idea of the Day: JOY

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=JOY

    JOY makes mining equipment. Its biggest competitor, BUCY, was bought last year by CAT, which continues to make acquisitions in the space. Business must be good -

    http://www.forbes.com/sites/russellflannery/2012/04/17/caterpillar-wins-approval-to-buy-era-mining-advance-in-china/

    The numbers are very good (old - Oct. 2011, from Yahoo). The stock has lagged CAT by 20 pps so far this year. So, do we buy CAT or JOYG?

    ------

    http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=JOY+Interactive#symbol=JOY;range=1y

    Market Cap (intraday)5: 8.07B
    Trailing P/E (ttm, intraday): 12.53
    Forward P/E (fye Oct 28, 2013)1: 8.78
    PEG Ratio (5 yr expected)1: 0.51 GOOD!
    Price/Sales (ttm): 1.73
    Price/Book (mrq): 3.82

    Profit Margin (ttm): 13.91%
    Operating Margin (ttm): 21.30%

    Return on Assets (ttm): 13.06%
    Return on Equity (ttm): 33.18% GOOD

    Revenue (ttm): 4.67B
    Revenue Per Share (ttm): 44.39
    Qtrly Revenue Growth (yoy): 30.70% GOOD!
    Qtrly Earnings Growth (yoy): 39.20% GOOD!

    Total Cash (mrq): 283.25M
    Total Cash Per Share (mrq): 2.68
    Total Debt (mrq): 1.40B
    Total Debt/Equity (mrq): 54.97

    Operating Cash Flow (ttm): 493.16M
    Levered Free Cash Flow (ttm): -75.77M
    (It had some kind of *other* investment event that impacted cash-flow... need to look into this.)

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    • Musk, Regarding your question about CAT or JOY, you might want to consider CMI. I own it and it has better stats on my screen than both CAT and JOY.

      CMI scores an 80 currently. Look at a 5yr chart comparing CMI with CAT and JOY. Similar industrial play.

    • Hi Musk and everyone. Here is my case for buying DECK now. First off, I'm a rules based investor. I follow pretty strict rules as you know. I don't buy any stock with a ttm p/e over 30 so I rarely buy momentum stocks. I was lucky to get into ISRG back when the p/e was around 29 about a year and a half ago. ISRG was the exception in that it got cheap enough for me to buy. History has shown that paying more than 30 ttm p/e usually is ok but it's the max. If you pay 50 or higher, you usually get burned if you plan to hold for more than 5 years. OK, back to how I screen.

      My screen has no valuation metrics in it whatsoever, only growth factors. I than "post screen" if you will for value afterwards. I want the highest growth rates possible in the 1yr(for recent positive activity)and 5yr for historic since most good companies have been around for awhile. The 1yr data ensures that things are NOT cooling off.

      DECK:

      5yr book value growth = +31.13%
      5yr eps = +44.92%
      5yr cash flow growth = +46.59%
      5yr rev growth = +35.24%
      5yr ROI = +22.60%
      1yr ROI = +27.30%
      EPS ttm vs prior ttm = +25.91%
      REV growth ttm vs ttm = +37.59%

      ttm p/e =13.1
      peg = .67
      D/C = 0

      Deckers scores an 88 on my screen. As you will see, DECK is in the company of stocks like AAPL, QCOR, LULU, BIDU, and PCLN. I only look at stocks that score an 80 or higher. I avoid certain stocks such as Chinese names because of my own uncertainty and distrust.

      Here are the current names and scores:

      QCOR 95 BUY
      AAPL 93 BUY
      LULU 92 WAIT, too expensive
      BIDU 91 WAIT, too expensive
      APEI 90 BUY
      CYOU 90 use caution, Chinese
      TNH 90 wait
      CF 90 wait
      EDU 90 use caution, Chinese
      PCLN 89 slightly expensive, but good buy under 30 p/e
      DECK 88 BUY


      My screen scores down to 50. I only look in the top percentile. Stats show this works. They are above average. You do especially well if you don't overpay.

    • Good pick Musk. The stats certainly fit my criteria.

      I'm also liking DECK at this current level. It got upgraded this morning and yesterday it was up 5.6%

      There are bargains out there, especially if you are a bit patient.

 
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