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Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras Message Board

  • musketeernumberone musketeernumberone Mar 18, 2013 12:38 PM Flag

    My last post ever on this board.

    This board, which once was a refuge from stupidity, a good place to seek considered opinon about investments and the macro-economy, has been taken over by Yahoos selling research, opinon, and tom-foolery. The smartest guy on the board went from a fact based analyst to someone with a grudge holding to a wrong opinon for 4 years while waiting desperately for the redeeming event which will let him say "I told you so". And then there´s the douche-baguette, the stalker in denial of his need for medication, the one who gambles with his inherited money while bragging about his bank account and relationships with big-league banksters... but he doesn´t even know the difference between an income statement and a balance sheet. LMFAO! Life is too short.

    Muskie, out.

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    • "The smartest guy on the board went from a fact based analyst to someone with a grudge holding to a wrong opinon for 4 years while waiting desperately for the redeeming event which will let him say "I told you so".

      LOL. Musk, I used you as a foil for the Democratic leaning talking heads who keep going on about how great everything is. There was nothing there to take personally but you did. You use the term 4 years, which just so happens to correspond with Obama's time in office. Don't pretend you haven't been a card carrying Democratic schill. For the record, I have given a fair amount of guff to Ilap for his partisanship.

      As for being "wrong", short term the market is a voting machine whose prices are as a fickle as a woman picking out what shoes to wear. When PBR in 2007 and AAPL in 2012 became "fashionable" picks, it was time to get out of them. I am extremely cynical of anyone who is always "right" in the short term.

      To me then the only question is being "right" in the long term requires studying numbers. No one is a fundamentalist anymore and with good reason. Fundamentalists have been crushed by the market rally, and as we have seen with JPM, corporate America is allowed to lie about the numbers.

      But if you look deep enough, you can see the truth. One of my picks that others commented about as my having balls of steel was the buying of Venezuelan bonds. More on next post.

      • 3 Replies to docjoe999
      • The Obama bots go on about how great the last 4 years have been while for 8 years of Bush they told us how bad everything was. Really? The unemployment rate has been 8% or higher his entire term. It makes the sub 5% and job growth during Bush look fantastic. I saw the storm clouds brewing in 08. For Michelle Obama to stand up there and campaign and tell us how bad the last 8 years were... I thought she was insane. You think the last 8 years were bad, it's about to get a whole lot worse sister. No more flipping houses, buying toys and fancy vacations. You have an additional 15 million people on food stamps, and 3 million less people employed and she wanted to tell us how bad we had it back then during the Bush years.

      • So I bought them in the $500 to $700 range and sold most around $700. Do you know where they are selling now? They are close to par, $980. So you tell me: did I sell too soon? Was I "wrong"?

        With bonds, you can put things in proper perspective. The market is saying Venezuela has a 2% risk of default. IMO the risk is as close to 100% as you can get on anything. Once oil prices reflect true supply and demand, and eventually they will, Venezuela is toast.

        And if you think Venezuela is bad, check out the rest of the bond market where there are tons and tons of bonds selling for way above par. You tell me what you call it when people are paying $1500 for an IOU that can be redeemed for $1000. I call it a bubble, the biggest bubble in history and this fact, this type of pricing in the bond market is unprecedented.

        As for being "right", I direct you back to the best investing book ever written, Reminsces of the Stock Operator, "And right here let me say one thing: After spending many
        years in Wall Street and after making and losing millions of
        dollars I want to tell you this: It never was my thinking that
        made the big money for me. It always was my sitting. Got that?
        My sitting tight! It is no trick at all to be right on the
        market. You always find lots of early bulls in bull markets and
        early bears in bear markets. "

        That you scold me for saying that holding my positions/sitting is all in the manner of "I told you so" just shows how amatuerish you really are. I want to make money not brag to others about my doing so.

    • Musk I consider you the typical investor. You watch TV, you hear Cramer yell BUY BUY BUY and you believe everything you see on TV. You believe their arguments but you can't comprehend or don't see the counter arguments. Have you ever met somebody that has been brainwashed by a multi level marketing scheme before? Whenever you try and tell them that they have been scammed they always have a quit rebuttal for every point. Their scheming masters taught them well.

      Ohhhh I'm right, just look at my Portfolio, it's up! Yeah for now. You are part of the herd and the herd always gets slaughtered by the smart money. Deep down you know who the smart money on this board is.

      So let me ask you a question Musk, what do you know that other investors don't know? What makes you special? Is it patience? Is it academically digging through the numbers? Is it ability to sift through the BS? You are an average at best investor and you will get average at best returns over your lifetime.

      • 1 Reply to waddawhat2002
      • wad
        If anybody has not seen eye to eye with musk over the years... It's me.
        but I don't think musk needs to be attacked on the basis of his investments, I'd hardly call him a Cramer follower.
        Everybody has there own style. Long term, mid term or short term, all have different styles and different goals. doc and musk are different... as I am different... as jaque is different.... not to mention you and others. He has benefited from the Fed support.... and so have all of us... what's wrong with that. I don't agree with the Fed, but to trade by our own personal convictions can lead to lees investment returns... no ?
        I do believe that musk enjoyed good success with his investments. And I'm guessing probably better than doc fared (from what I know anyway with regard to what has been posted on this board).
        If you have issues with him, find another front... noting wrong with his investment philosophy from what I've witnessed.

    • Hi Musk,
      I agree this board has become a snakepit full of lunatics. Perhaps the oldtime participants who like to share investment ideas and discuss global events as adults could form a Yahoo forum "Global Investors." People must join to be able to post, ban trolls, spammers etc...

      Sentiment: Strong Sell

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