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Pfizer Inc. Message Board

  • eddiwez eddiwez Aug 1, 2007 4:34 PM Flag

    Moderate good news!

    PFE, for a fat unattractive girl she doesn't sweat or smell too much. I am trying to write a post that the one contributor won't exaggerate.

    The Bollinger today showed a PFE "so far" that doesn't stink as bad as it used to! Can you grasp that?

    There are small signs in the Bollinger once again that we could be beginning to base.

    Could it still crash? Yesiree it sure as heck could!

    Am I just a tad bit more encouraged than two days ago? Why yes I am seeing some light at the end of the tunnel..it could be a big train to run over me, but you are getting advice worth what you paid for which was nothing.....

    Still we do have a small reputation among a tiny group of followers and we owe them some explanation. This stock probably will not turn on a dime. One month from now it could still be here at this price range +/- 1% to 2%.

    We are not ready to call a bottom but we have about 5% of the data we need to suspect we are almost there if not there. Each day we do not break down from here, will build some confidence and we could eventually slowly drift up. We might tell you to sell where Charty told us was the last chance to buy, but you will have made something close to 11.7% if you didn't buy the moment he said Buy Right Now because you won't see these prices and the low today.

    Now we all know that none of us got the absolute bottom so if all you make is 9% or 10% over the next 60 days I am betting that most of you will be happy.

    If you get to buy even cheaper, then I'll pat you on the back!!! But at some point you need to buy if you want to brag latter. We think the risk to the bottom from here is 4% to 5% and the upside is 11% to 15%. That is a good balance if we are all very lucky.

    Decide for yourself where to buy, but I don't think there will be a large penalty for waiting longer. There is no rush in other words. If it hits $26 in three or four months we can reevaluate the decision then. My guess is that we will get out 'too early' and still be very happy!

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    • Bollinger is not our only tool, but this site doesn't allow much elaboration.

      WE are a tiny little group of friends that enjoy making money and respect each others views. WE don't always agree and I want to make that point very clear. WE are also sometimes wrong as this market will humble you quickly once you think you know everything. you just can't know everything.

      Let me explain how and what we use Bollinger for. Bollinger to us is radar. Simply radar. It notices the absence of ships in the area or big ships in the area feeding on what species of fish..I don't know if that is a good analogy or not.

      The basic assumption is that big buyers can�t buy without it showing up on the charts. They can�t sell without it showing up on the charts.

      We wipe our minds clean to the best we can of all our prejudices against or for any stock.

      Of course we realize the realities of interest rates and wars and all that can throw our work for a real loop! But we assume all that will average out over time.

      Bollinger works best on a clean radar screen. What do we mean by that? Well if some big guys are buying and some are selling we get a bunch of noise and we can�t clearly read the charts.

      But if we look for stocks that people have lost interest in, we make the assumption that any continuous buying into strength is a positive sign and the more we see of it the more interested we become.

      One big investor has a lawsuit with the SEC saying that disclosure of any kind infringes on his proprietary knowledge. He wants it done away with. These guys have to buy really slow for us not to find them on the radar.

      Buffet has a waver! Instead of three month disclosure he has a minimum of six months and that is after he has accumulated 5% of a company. We spotted his buying of Kraft KFT some 100 days ago and the announcement just hit the street a few weeks ago. Crammer changed his tune on KFT at the same moment it was released that Buffet was buying KFT. WE were all over KFT months earlier on the strength of our charts.

      There are thousands or even more ways to work (not play) the market. This works well for us. WE can�t claim anything of perfection. WE are far better at buying then selling, because we are monitoring buying primarily. When the big boys move a stock they draw followers like us and we don�t get that one good clear sell signal like we do on the buy side. So our discipline is to buy very cheap and expect to miss the top and sell a little too early or too late and leave with a very nice profit.

      We hope to make about 4 or 5 round trips with each sub-set of money. WE may not play the same stock over and over, but we seem to. WE think that happens for several years because we start to pick up on the big guy�s patterns.

      Over time one can amass millions but it is based on smaller hits over many times. WE sometimes sell with just a 5% to 9% moves. Those few 22% moves over two months like we are hitting with EK are very rare!

    • to eddie..
      congrads on your seemingly tremendous accumulation of wealth. Your dependance on bollinger bands seems a little too simplistic to forcast such major trends .- if that were so - everybody would be using bbands and they would become worthless. Please explain

    • <<<The "big boys" weren't buying much Pfizer on 12/12/05 up until 3:00. But they sure bought the rest of that day, 12/13, 12/14, etc.

      I prefer discussing tangible items like earnings and revenues - not what some esoteric little piece of TA happens to be doing at the moment.>>>>

      I guess maybe that is why you are over 60 years old and still playing with lunch money while some of the rest of us count our purchases in thousand and 10's of thousands of shares and hold position in dozens of stocks. Do your realize that just my investment portfolio is 60 times to 120 times large than yours depending on whether PFE is up one or two dollars? My actual wealth is four times my investment portfolio. Yet I am the dummy?

      I can assure you that when I started investing I probably had much less money than you at that time, but so far I am so far ahead of you that you can't dream of catching up.

      Yet you dismiss the tools I use as invalid. Doesn't that say it all?

    • Here is an excerpt from a reply that you made to my post on July 9 entitled "Re: Something Seriously Wrong"

      "It is very logical to expect another management estimate hike in connection with the upcoming earnings release as the company already beat Q1 by an amazing eleven cents a share and I expect at least a four-cent beat this time(note: you wern't even close!). That would mean actual figures of at least fifteen cents over the estimate in 2007 - and in 2006 management hiked even with a first-half beat of twelve cents."

      I think that the little bit of credibility that you had with me disappeared completely with that reply. The earnings report was dismal!

    • Just when I think you couldn't possibly write something more ignorant, you sit down at your computer and totally redeem yourself!


      <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<How Pfizer will fare will depend largely on upcoming news developments - developments which TA simply won't reflect since the company is tight-lipped and SEC Regulation Fair Disclosure prohibits the company from revealing inside info to favored analysts or investors without informing shareholders at large.

      The charts for PFE simply aren't going to be telling you very much and I don't think a lot of time should be wasted talking about them. >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

      You have a total lack of knowledge about what Bollinger is measuring! It has nothing to do with insider information on the stock!

      It measures buying and buying only. Rules for disclosing "buying" are as much as six months and that is being contested in court. You just don't get it!

      We often pick buying up on the radar 3 to 4 months before the disclosure! That is a big advantage! But it only works on stocks that have buying not "every" stock! But it also can measure the lack of buying which can be as important to know. PFE right now has a lack of buying into strength and the big boys are not buying. That is critical information!!

      It is even more critical when one notes that Pfizer itself has announced that it intends to buy1

    • Here is an exerpt from a reply that you made to my post on July 9 entitled "Re: Something Seriously Wrong"

      "It is very logical to expect another management estimate hike in connection with the upcoming earnings release as the company already beat Q1 by an amazing eleven cents a share and I expect at least a four-cent beat this time. That would mean actual figures of at least fifteen cents over the estimate in 2007 - and in 2006 management hiked even with a first-half beat of twelve cents."

      I think that the little bit of credibility that you had with me disappeared completely with that reply. The earnings report was dismal!

    • Re: Yesterday was "Previews of Coming Attractions" 14-Jul-07 02:24 am

      It's amazing what you come up with when you put pencil to paper and even make an attempt of coming up with something reasonable instead of just blindly falling in with sandbagging management.

      I do my homework and actually go through the calculations whereas I would say that half the analysts simply go along with management's estimates. That's why I'm consistently closer to the truth than the analysts and consistently closer to the truth than what David Shedlarz estimates.

      I'm telling you right now that there's no way revenues are going to be as low as $11.41B, the current consensus. That's based on hard-nosed analysis - not wishful thinking. You will see for yourself in about 100 hours.

      chrt13

    • " How Pfizer will fare will depend largely on upcoming news developments "

      Such as the approval of Torcetrapib?

      You know, Torcetrapib.... the drug where approval is "only a matter of when, not if."

    • Just when I thought you couldn't write anything more stupid you again go and totally redeem your self.

      This is the base building process. This is a chart of how it works when you chart the "quality" of buying.

      PFE can not have a sustained movement up until the big boys participate. When they buy into the falling prices it isn't good. When they pay up it is good.

      Investors should want to determine the point at which the big money is willing to buy even though the price is going up.

      Even Pfizer will try to buy some of its own stock on downswings and stop as it goes up. It is counter to Pfizer's goals to overpay for its own stock.

      All good investors try to buy on the cheap. We want to know when they buy because they don't think it will get cheaper and they are afraid of missing the upswing. It is that moment that we want to be in!

    • Having fun?

      ====================================
      Re: So much for "hovering" around 2750 max pain for weeks! 5-Jun-07 05:59 pm

      $28.25 wasn't an upside TARGET - it was an absolute upside LIMIT at least through next Friday's quarterly options expiration. However, there are NO LIMITS when it comes to what will begin 45 days hence. At that time the stock begins its "Climb Every Mountain" phase. The 6.5-year downtrend line will go. Last year's $28.60 high will go. So will the previous year's $29.21 high. And finally the round number $30 will fall.

      Will you be fully participating in the fun? I certainly will be.

      chrt13

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34.88-0.23(-0.66%)Aug 30 4:00 PMEDT