1) Fear of Democrat control of both houses of congress & White House.
2) Lipitor sales diving more deeply than company forecasts.
3) Canadian verdict against PFE in Lipitor patent case.
4) US decision against PFE in same, ending exclusivity in 2010 instead of 2011.
5) Lowering of 2008 estimates by company in October.
6) Lower dividend hike than last year, to $1.20 or $1.24 instead of $1.28. This is essential, since EPS will be so low in 2011 & 2012 (around $2) that company has to start lower raises now to avoid having to cut then.
How they can maintain next year's guidance is beyond me. With falling to flat revenue, thanks only to currency, not new blockbuster drug sales, the only way they could make those numbers IMO would be to increase the share buyback program.
Well it is hard to disagree that you have a good list to explain why PFE may not go up much and may go down. We shall see.
It is always best to remember Will Rogers, "Rogers said, "Making money in the stock market is easy. You buy stocks, and when they go up you sell them. If they don't go up, don't buy them!"
Options and the like weren't around for Will, but he actually avoided the market for most of his life preferring waterfront property.
He also said if you put all your money in one basket, you better watch that basket close.
1929 brought an economic meltdown the likes of which we have never seen since. The scope of despair it wrought was far-reaching and spanned over a decade of cascading impacts. I mention this once again to remind young investors that few alive today have ever seen the likes of it, but it is always possible that something similar or worse is not out of the realm of possibilities. None of us are ever as smart as we think we are.
This whole mortgage debacle had the stench of the �29 banking shenanigans all over it. After 29 regulations were put in place to limit these sorts of disasters, but clever men have figured ways around the regulations once again. These clever men were worldwide in 1929 and they are worldwide once again. In Germany some of the blame was improperly placed on a whole race and the race felt the horrible brunt of an effort of extermination. History should not be forgotten so easily.
Spread your bets and remember that in the end little is really totally secure. In a melt down, banks and mutual funds can stop cashing in and paying out for quite some time. A little corn liquor buried in the back yard may bring more comfort then a discount brokerage�s statement if everything goes to hell in a hand basket.
I even think it is not unwise to spread your funds in several brokerages and keep some cash in the closet. Never say never.