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Pfizer Inc. Message Board

  • suckeesuckeesuckee suckeesuckeesuckee May 17, 2008 1:10 PM Flag

    IMO, 2012 will be the year to buy PFE, or.

    possibly 2011, if Lipitor should go off patent in 2010.

    PFE has lost three bucks so far this year & just keeps giving it up.

    Unless there's some miracle cure for its sales woes, PFE should keep falling by at least as much as its dividend deductions every year:

    2008: 1970 - 64 = 1906
    2009: 1906 - 132 = 1774
    2010: 1774 - 136 = 1638
    2011: 1638 - 140 = 1498
    2012: 1498 - 144 = 1354

    But in 2012, Lipitor will be gone & PFE can look forward to possibly growing earnings for a few years thereafter, instead of steady decline in prior years.

    Maybe some fund will start sponsoring PFE again before 2011-12, but I doubt, with the share price probably continuing incapable of overcoming the downdraft from dividend subtractions.

    PFE really sucks! If you buy it now for the divvie, you'll be waiting a long time for share price appreciation, & Democrats will repeal the favorable divvie tax treatment, so you'll barely keep up with inflation, while watching your stock sink.

    Better places now & for next few years than in pharma in general & PFE in particular. Much better, as this year has already so amply demonstrated. JNJ has done better than most due to its consumer division. Thanks, PFE, for selling them theirs!

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    • Yes, that is expecting a huge amount.

      Plus, your profit margin estimate is wildly optimistic. Your share assumptions are also wishful thinking.

      As everyone even casually familiar with this board knows, you're always ludicrously wrong.

    • How can you expect much in sales for 2012 from approvals that year?

      Your estimated EPS of ~$3.35 for 2008, made in 2004, was off by a buck, or about 30% ("Accelerating double digit growth" from expected $2.45 in 2005, ie X 1.10 for 2006, 1.11 for 2007 & 1.12 for 2008)!

      Are you claiming that in 2004 you expected Torcetrapib to fail ("Only a matter of when, not if!"), Indiplon, Exubera & all the other disasters in 2006 & 2007?


    • fortunately, if the tax change occurs, the inflation ought to be gentler as well- inflation being aggravated by republican fiscal policy, which gives away much larger sums of money than any "welfare state" programs you want to whine about. you don't have to like it, actually i kind of prefer you don't, but it is an historical fact. it was a republican who *gave* us inflation, and the most recent republican who basically perfected it.

    • Won't go that low, IMO, but under $18 for a year or more is a finite possibility completely lacking from Chartnuts' risk-reward assessment.

      Trading $16-18 for 13 months would wipe out all the loser's liquid assests. The loon can't get a bigger home loan, due to bad credt rating, with good reason!, so the IRA & annuity would have to go.

      Who knows how long it would take to sell the house in the current LA market? Might take a loss on that, too.

      There is a real chance that Chartnuts could be totally wiped out.

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