yet Alan now imagines that PFE in the next two years will hugely outperform the index, running from $17 to $29 by Jan 2013.
Not gonna happen. No worms have turned. PFE has often out-performed the index for brief periods, such as two months, but always reverts to its mean arithmetic mean. Either the index rallies to catch up & blow past it again, or PFE crashes back to where it belongs.
This is even more true now than in the past, since it's a big, lumbering, no to low growth company, while today's market is dominated by ETFs & programmed trading.
$29 by 2013 is beyond a pipe dream; it's a diseased delusion.
It would require not just a return to Dow 14K, but Dow 18,000, assuming PFE equaled the S&P, which is an unjustified assumption. More likely, it will continue trailing, as money will flow into other sectors should the indexes rally. But we're still in a secular bear until at least 2016, so any sustained rally is improbable.
Reality, as always is not Alan's friend, nor does the fool even recognize it when he sees it, since the loon isn't even looking for it.
What a fair starting date to use - September 2004 - just before the Vioxx and Celebrex debacles and just before the clustering of big patent expirations started for Pfizer.
However, the patent expiration situation will be doing a complete 180 for PFE as Page #9 of the 10-K clearly shows. That will lead to drastically-improved earnings growth which in turn will result in a much-improved multiple.
$29 for Pfizer in 2013 isn't much more than 12 times what non-GAAP earnings should be that year. Right now, future basket case LLY is at 12 times expected 2014 non-GAAP earnings while BMY is already selling between 14 and 15 times expected 2013 non-GAAP results.
There is absolutely no reason why with Pfizer much-improved expectations post-Lipitor why it shouldn't at least be selling at 12 times the 2013 expectation in early 2013. Dow 14,000 absolutely isn't needed for this to happen.
It will certainly be nice being a self-made Pfizer options millionaire and to finally be able to start writing the definitive book on optimal options strategies. It will be my legacy to posterity.
Every day of the year, the 'nut of the board,' ruffturd, tiderunner, foamydischarge,(all the same person) displays bellicose and antithetical behavior. His anger could perhaps be understandable, but it's misplaced as he doesn't have the intellectual capacity to follow the guru. Folks reading this board can run their cars on the hot gas that he generates. He's one that's too stupid to know that he's stupid.
If Chartness doesn't goosestep with the conventional mode of investing, he has a fit as he feels in his little addled mind that there's only one way to amass wealth and it has to be done using prevailing methods. Well, wake up and smell the bronto beans. Just watch Chartness do it and you'll be convinced once and for all.
Must I suggest to Chartness to write his method in Braille for him to understand?