When there are multi-year bear markets such as 2000-2002 and 2007-2009, it's not surprising that stocks will bottom closer to the end of the year than the beginning. The crash for 2007-2009 ended in March so in 2009 the bottom came aarly. But that still left five years for the two big crashes involving the years 2000, 2001, 2002, 2007 and 2008. There was also a severe correction in 2010 that caused Pfizer to make its low just beyond mid-year.
In 2004 there was the adverse Celebrex test in December and in 2005, there were big worries about the Lipitor patent case until the favorable verdict was issued - which just happened to be in December. And in 2006, the mid-year outbreak of hostilities between the Arabs and the Israelis caused a July low. Was there any reason why that war had to be in June and July as opposed to, say, February and March?
Lows made in the latter part of the year are completely random. If I flipped a coin ten times there would be a number of occasions when I end up with eight heads or eight tails.
That didn't happen in 2003 and 2009. Of the remaining years, specifically JULY lows were seen in 2002, 2006 and 2010. So of the nine years before this one, the lows were made in July or prior on five of the nine occasions. The exceptions were:
2004 - December lows because that's just when the failed Celebrex test happened to occur. That could have happened any month.
2005 - December lows largely because of the uncertainly regarding the Lipitor patent case. It just so happened that the favorable verdict wasn't rendered until December.
2007 - November lows because of the onset of the crash
2008 - November lows during the crash.
A few severe random events happened to occur late in the year on those occasions. Big deal - it hardly means that there is any reason why that should happen in any given year. And as I said, five of the nine lows occurred before July was over with. And my trusty calendar tells me that July is over with for 2011.
The years in which it didn't happen were, as you've been shown repeatedly, not normal.
In those years, either the market made an historic low in H1, as in 2003 & 2009, or an historic high, as in 2000. But in all normal years, PFE always makes its low in H2.
Whether in July or Dec doesn't matter. All traders need know is that the frequent Jan highs are sure to be taken out in normal years, ie about three out of four.
That is not only not random but highly statistically significant, indeed close to a mortal lock.
Wish Ruffnuts hadn't deleted the great guru off this board, along with so many other valuable posters.
Could use his wisdom right now.
Laughable how many years Alan refused to concede that Clint was right about lows in H2, esp after the dividend got so stratospheric, & kept denying obvious reality.