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  • fizrwinnr11 fizrwinnr11 Oct 12, 2012 10:50 AM Flag

    Since Alan crowed about Obama's assumed 251 EVs on the RCP map, that number has dropped

    Because RealClearPolitics is only considering October polls, they have put back four of the states in the upper Midwest including:

    1) Pennsylvania - 20 electoral votes
    2) Ohio - 18 electoral votes
    3) Michigan - 16 electoral votes
    4) Wisconsin - 10 electoral votes

    Of the four above states, Romney's chances in PA, MI and WI are UTTERLY HOPELESS. As for Ohio, there's just a slight glimmer of hope. These are states where Romney's willingness to let the auto industry go under plays a major factor and a single debate where Obama made no gaffes isn't going to change a thing.

    If Obama is credited with the three states that he is CERTAIN to win, the electoral vote count goes to 247. Add in Ohio where he's at least a five to one favorite and he's up to 265. New Hampshire, another almost certain Obama state pushes the count to 269.

    Romney would have to carry every single other battlefield state to throw the race into the House. It isn't going to happen. Both the Iowa Electronic Market and Intrade show Obama in the 63 to 65-cent range which is higher than when the GOP convention began. When that convention began with Obama at 59.5 cents and Intrade at 58 cents, most analysts thought it would take either an October surprise or a MAJOR Obama gaffe for Romney to have a chance. Obama preferring to take a passive stance in the first debate hardly constitutes the kind of major gaffe that Romney desperately needs.

    With just two debates remainiing, no October surprise and with probably 20% of the electorate already having voted absentee, Romney is toast.

    Sentiment: Buy

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    • No way does Romney win nationally by 1-4 percentage points & not win enough electoral votes:

      Poll Date Sample MoE Romney (R) Obama (D) Spread
      RCP Average 10/4 - 10/12 -- -- 47.3 46.0 Romney +1.3
      Rasmussen Tracking 10/10 - 10/12 1500 LV 3.0 49 48 Romney +1
      IBD/TIPP Tracking 10/7 - 10/12 804 LV 3.5 46 46 Tie
      Gallup Tracking 10/6 - 10/12 2700 LV 2.0 49 47 Romney +2
      Monmouth/SurveyUSA/Braun 10/8 - 10/10 1360 LV 2.7 47 46 Romney +1
      FOX News 10/7 - 10/9 1109 LV 3.0 46 45 Romney +1
      Pew Research 10/4 - 10/7 1112 LV 3.4 49 45 Romney +4
      WashTimes/JZ Analytics* 10/5 - 10/7 800 LV 3.5 45 45 Tie

      Why should any polls but October count? Indeed only polls taken after the first debate are meaningful.

    • "No October surpirise"

      Stated as absolute fact on October 12th.

      Were you concerned that there might be one new person on the board who hadn't yet realized that you're not to be taken seriously?

    • WI is hardly utterly hopeless. In fact, at the moment Romney & Obama are tied there.

      Don't you ever get tired of always being wrong about everything.

      At least now you recognize that Romney could win OH, which you were so sure he'd lose that you bet on it.

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