Of the four above states, Romney's chances in PA, MI and WI are UTTERLY HOPELESS. As for Ohio, there's just a slight glimmer of hope. These are states where Romney's willingness to let the auto industry go under plays a major factor and a single debate where Obama made no gaffes isn't going to change a thing.
If Obama is credited with the three states that he is CERTAIN to win, the electoral vote count goes to 247. Add in Ohio where he's at least a five to one favorite and he's up to 265. New Hampshire, another almost certain Obama state pushes the count to 269.
Romney would have to carry every single other battlefield state to throw the race into the House. It isn't going to happen. Both the Iowa Electronic Market and Intrade show Obama in the 63 to 65-cent range which is higher than when the GOP convention began. When that convention began with Obama at 59.5 cents and Intrade at 58 cents, most analysts thought it would take either an October surprise or a MAJOR Obama gaffe for Romney to have a chance. Obama preferring to take a passive stance in the first debate hardly constitutes the kind of major gaffe that Romney desperately needs.
With just two debates remainiing, no October surprise and with probably 20% of the electorate already having voted absentee, Romney is toast.