Why Romney isn't gaining any more ground in RCP polls in battlefiled states
RCP keeps state polls longer than the national average because there are fewer of them.
All polls before Oct 3 are meaningless. If you, Alan, want to behave like a real Numbers Man, then exclude all polls from that day back. Any recent polls in battleground states showing Obama up by four or five points or more are totally bogus, with Democrats outnumbering Republicans by far more even than in 2008. Ridiculously biased, intending to fool fools like you.
All polls before Oct 3 are meaningless. If you, Alan, want to behave like a real Numbers Man, then exclude all polls from that day back.
On 9/27, We Ask America completed a Michigan poll of 1,041 LV's showing Obama to be up by 12 points. Do you think that We Ask America has conducted its last poll in the state of Michigan? They only seem to poll in that state every three or four weeks but you can bet your bottom dollar that when they release their latest results in a few days, it will show Obama to be up by 7, 8 or 10 points. Obviously that in itself will change the consensus by quite a bit.
Just willy-nilly tossing out the late September polls showing Obama up by considerable percentages is just digging your head in the sand like an ostrich. Obviously these polling organizations will be shortly coming out with post-debate numbers that while being below the late September numbers, they will still show hefty Obama margins. That's why it's incredibly naive and just plain wrong to throw out all the late September polls. Because once the infrequent pollsters that had Obama ahead by a ton finally release post-debate figures, the current consensus percentages now only showing October polls figure to have increased margins for Obama.
So just when the GOP would want to show the Romney bounce continuing, just the opposite figures to happen. It will be the Dems who will increasingly be showing better numbers. This isn't exactly tough to anticipate.
Speculators in the electronic markets are generally good numbers men and they instinctively know this. Or do you think they are simply dupes and suckers to be wagering almost $2 on Obama to win just one?