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  • carolharold123 carolharold123 Oct 15, 2012 1:47 PM Flag

    Why Romney isn't gaining any more ground in RCP polls in battlefiled states

    Well, I just checked RCP and Obama's lead margin just got halved. It is now 201 Obama and 191 Romney. The shrinkage continues for Obama. If RCP continues to throw out ancient polls, Obama is going to lose. This could turn out to be the first election ever that was lost because pollsters removed old meaningless polls from their calculations. The fix is in, LMAO.

    Sentiment: Buy

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    • Obama's lead shrank only because RCP put back into play previous Obama states Pennsylvania (20 EV's), Michigan (16 EV's) and Wisconsin (10 EV's). At the end of September, RCP had Obama margins in these states between 6 and 9 points but when they threw out all of the late September polls, the margins became 4 to 5-percentage point leads, just below RCP's 5% threshhold.

      These polls from late September, some showing Obama even with a double-digit lead, are hardly "ancient." And even though some of them are only taken once every three or four weeks, the orgainizations conducting them certainly aren't going away. How ridiculous to just willy-nilly toss out a late September poll showing Obama to be ahead by 10% in Pennsylvania, Michigan or Ohio by such as CNN or CBS. Obviously there are going to be new polls by these organizations and even though the new polls may show Obama to be ahead by "only" 7 or 8% instead of 10 or 11%, when the new polls are added to the mix, the Obama margins will be increasing. At this late stage of the race though with so few undecided and with absentee voters already casting ballots, even a 4% advantage is insurmountable barring a major Obama gaffe.

      If you truly think that states like Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin are true toss-up states up for grabs, maybe we can arrange a nice, friendly cash wager with the stakes held by an impartial escrow company.

      Sentiment: Buy

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