The recent presidential poll predictions that I have seen or heard about vary all over the map, kind of like the weather prediction for a given day. Today in my local paper, I read the race is almost a dead heat, with Obama slightly ahead but within the 3% margin of error. This poll was taken just before the last Obama/Romney debate. Are any of these polls believable or is there a political bias factored in all of them which renders them useless?
There is not a lot of variance on average. The race is pretty much a dead heat at the moment with the momentum now favoring Romney. Most polls now show Romney in the lead by a thin margin. Real Clear, which averages all polls, now shows Romney with a lead in the electoral count of 206 to 201. Anything more that a few days old is useless for predictive purposes. Polls are useful for campaigning purposes. For example, the Romney campaign has now pulled out of North Carolina due to the fact that polling now shows N. C. is safe for Romney. The Presidential election is all about States rather than total votes.
RealClearPolitics yanked several states out of the Romney column because in those states there are no longer margins in excess of five percentage points. But don't fool yourself as for starters the margins in both Pennsylvania (20 electoral votes) and Michigan (16 electoral votes) are exactly 5.0% percentage points. At this late stage in the race with so few undecideds and so few catalysts left, these are CERTAIN Obama states barring a major major Obama gaffe. Add just those two states in and the electoral college count becomes 237 to 206 in favor of Obama.
But the bad news for Romney doesn't end there. RealClearPolitics currently shows Obama leading by 2.4% to 3.0% in Ohio (18 EV's), Wisconsin (10 EV's), Iowa (6 EV's) and Nevada 6 EV's) and those margins just arent't shrinking. If Obama holds onto those states and loses the remaining close races, he still would end up with 271 electoral votes and the election.