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  • fizrwinnr11 fizrwinnr11 Oct 29, 2012 5:25 PM Flag

    How the electoral college is shaping up

    Here is what I wrote four days ago:

    There are four states where Obama has led throughout and where he has workable 2 to 3 percentage point leads that are pretty much holding. These four states are:

    1) Wisconsin (10 electoral votes) - 2.7% Obama lead
    2) Nevada (06 electoral votes) - 2.7% Obama lead
    3) Ohio (18 electoral votes) - 2.1% Obama lead
    4) Iowa (06 electoral votes) - 2.0% Obama lead

    Here are the current numbers:

    1) Wisconsin - Obama is at 2.3%, down slightly from 2.7%.
    2) Nevada - Obama is at 2.4%, down slightly from 2.7%.
    3) Ohio - Obama was still at 2.1% until the outlier Rasmussen poll dropped him to 1.9%.
    4) Iowa - Obama has GAINED slightly in the state and is now up 2.3%, up from 2.0%.

    In addition, New Hampshire is now a new state in the Leaning Obama column. It only had Obama up by 1.1% on Thursday but now he's up by 2.0%.

    Romney is also going south in Florida where the consensus has him up by 1.5% as compared with 1.8% last Thursday.

    In states where the current margin is 1.5% or more, the electoral college count is 281 for Obama and 235 for Romney with only two true tossup states - Virginia with 13 electoral votes and Colorado with 9. Romney needs to carry both tossup states to keep me from posting here in February. As for the overall election though, Romney has no chance. Apparently you have forgotten what a terrific numbers analyst I am.

    Sentiment: Buy

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