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  • fizrwinnr11 fizrwinnr11 Nov 5, 2012 12:28 PM Flag

    Odds in battleground states - Nate Silver vs. RealClearPolitics

    Silver awards Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan to Obama; he feels that the chances are 95% or more for each state. He also awards Obama the state of Nevada where he thinks the president has over a 90% chance. Those states along with the absolutely solid ones would give Obama 253 electoral votes to 191 for Romney with seven battlefield states involving 94 electoral votes. Here is how Silver and RealClearPolitics sees those seven states:

    1) Ohio (18 electoral votes) - Silver has Obama by 3.2% with an 87% chance of winning there versus a RealClearPolitics margin of 2.9%.

    2) Iowa (06 electoral votes) - Silver sees Obama by 2.9% with an 81% chance while RCP shows a 3.0% margin.

    3) New Hampshire (04 electoral votes) - Silver is forecasting Obama by 3.2% and an 80% chance of carrying the state as compared with the RCP consensus of 2.0%.

    So factoring in the states where Silver has an 80% or greater probability, the electoral college count for Obama is up to 281, eleven more than needed for reelection.

    4) Virginia (13 electoral votes) - Silver projects Obama by 1.5% with a 73% chance of victory as compared with an RCP Obama margin of 0.3%.

    5) Colorado (09 electoral votes) - Silver has Obama by 1.7% in the popular vote with a 70% chance of carrying the state while RCP has Obama by 0.6%.

    If Obama carries the states where Silver thinks he has a 70% or better chance, the Obama electoral college count goes to 303.

    6) Florida (29 electoral votes) - Silver shows Romney with a scant 0.3% lead in the popular vote with Obama having a 44% chance of winning. RealClearPolitics consensus shows Romney up by 1.8%.

    7) North Carolina (15 electoral votes) - Silver shows Romney with a 2.0% lead with Obama having a 23% chance there while RCP has Romney up by 3.0%.

    If Romney carries these two states, his electoral count would be 235.

    In the nationwide popular vote, Silver sees it as 50.6% Obama, 48.5% Romney and 0.9% other. RealClearPolitics has Obama winning by 0.4%.

    Silver's electoral college odds for Obama have gone from 85.1% on Oct. 31 to 86.3% now. In other words, he sees Obama as having 6 chances in 7 of winning the election.

    Sentiment: Buy

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