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Pfizer Inc. Message Board

  • xquestor xquestor Nov 20, 2012 9:40 AM Flag


    "I love to be involved in stocks that are just hated by the Street when valuations are this absurd. Because unless the stock is destined to plummet a lot further, I will make out like a bandit in the fullness of time even if I have to roll a time or two."

    Your brother must really be PO'ed at you!

    So tell us what is your new exit strategy from your newly acquired short HPQ puts. You already rolled the previous short puts over at an $8,000+ loss. Is this the new strategy on how to make money?

    And what about those short JCP puts? I noticed that you didn't mention them? You never posted that you had rolled them or bought them back at a loss.


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    • Judging from the contents of your message, I can only conclude that YOU are the fuzzy one.

      I have never made any bones about the fact that about one out of every four investments I'll have to roll out and in so doing there will be short-term losses booked. However, I can honestly tell you that in the over two years of my naked put-writing portfolios, I have only rolled out more than once on an underlying stock in the case of BAC and on that stock, I ended earning about 62K.

      I have yet to take a loss in the fullness of time on any underlying stock and on all stocks other than F, I eventually would up with double-digit annualized profits. In the case of F which went from $16.80 to $9.80 when I was involved, I would up with high single-digit annualized profits.

      Yes - I recently had to roll my HPQ Feb 13-strike naked puts which involved an 8K short-term loss. But did you notice that I received 11K on the rollout to the 10-strikes expiring in Jan. 2014?
      Did you also see that consensus earnings for HPQ's October 2013 fiscal year is $3.34 while for the following year it's $3.56? Did you know that just last quarter HPQ INCREASED its annual dividend to 53 cents a share which isn't much more than 15% of earnings?

      With that kind of a dividend and with earnings per share that $25 Pfizer can only dream about in 2020, should I be overly concerned that HPQ will turn into a single-digit stock? How many large-cap companies do you know of that sell at less than three times earnings?

      So what is my "exit strategy" on HPQ? Why I'll wait a year and book long-term capital gains of almost 11K to more than offset my 8K in short-term losses. I'll wind up with 3K in profits on a 20K investment over about 16 months from inception. The return of about 11% annualized will be below my original expectations to be share but still it is a double-digit return on one of my worst investments and when an investor can achieve that, he's going to have truly outsized portfolio returns.

      Regarding my JCP naked puts, why haven't I mentioned rolling them out? The reason is that I'm still holding the position - the 15-strikes for Jan. with the stock still near $18? With still reasonable leeway, why would you think I'd need to roll them out? They expire in just seven weeks and I'm simply waiting for more time to click off of the clock.

      Those that got involved in the stock when I did in the mid-twenties are nursing some rather hefty losses at this time. But I had VERY considerable downside leeway with the 15-strikes and so while the buys and holds have big losses and are a good ways from just breaking even, within a few weeks I will be taking nice PROFITS.

      My methods truly are superior and you can see that for yourself if you continue to follow the bouncing ball.

      Aside from my younger brother, I currently have three millionaires who are using me as an options consultant. Others are waiting in the wings for me to make my them.

      Sentiment: Buy

    • So what about your JCP losses?


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