Consensus average annual growth rates for domestic pharmas for 2013-2016
Thanks for your post. I did cover my Pfizer short at the end of the day yesterday and earned $2,030 after commissions for five calendar days on an investment that cost $27,620 to margin.
Yes - ZTS was a successful IPO but still it represents only 6% of PFE holdings and is relatively small potatoes for a company Pfizer's size.
Both MRK and PFE slightly beat estimates and then gave 2013 guidance slightly below what the Street is looking for. It doesn't make a lot of sense that Pfizer surged on its news while MRK tanked on its. The failure of the MRK osteoporosis drug isn't all that significant for a company MRK's size.
A year ago this date, PFE was making its 2012 closing low of $20.95. It is up by 32% since then even though at that time the 2012 consensus estimate was $2.27 and actual was $2.19.
A year ago when MRK was in the $38 area, consensus for 2012 was $3.83 and they came in with $3.82. MRK was a lot closer a year ago to actual than PFE and yet PFE stock has surged by 32% while MRK is only up by 7%. PFE has gotten a lot of mileage out of Cramer now being on board (he loves momentum stocks) and from the relatively small-potatoes ZTS spinoff. But from here on in, I think that PFE will have a tough time outperforming MRK as MRK is a faster-growing stock, has a better eividend and has a lower PE.
I still think that PFE will get over $30 before the year is out and that's why I'm still sticking with it. In every single year going back to 1982, the annual closing range for PFE has been at least 23.7% as measured from the low close of the year to the high close. That 23.7% range occurred in the year 1988. On two other occasions, 2007 and 2012, the closing range was in the 24% area. In the other 28 years, the range was 25.0% or more.
It's hard to go against something that has worked unfaillingly for 31 years out of 31. It's hard to see PFE going much below $24 this year - even in a bad overall market. And if the 2013 low is no lower than $24, the high close shouldn't be far from $30.
Good luck to you in the upcoming Chinese Year of the Water Snake.
Very useful stuff and thank you. Where do you get them?
"In every single year going back to 1982, the annual closing range for PFE has been at least 23.7% as measured from the low close of the year to the high close. That 23.7% range occurred in the year 1988. On two other occasions, 2007 and 2012, the closing range was in the 24% area. In the other 28 years, the range was 25.0% or more."