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Pfizer Inc. Message Board

  • fizrwinnr11 fizrwinnr11 Feb 4, 2013 12:16 PM Flag

    Consensus average annual growth rates for domestic pharmas for 2013-2016

    7.1% for JNJ ($5.10 to $6.68). PE of 13.7 times 2013 consensus
    6.0% for ABT/ABBV ($5.07 to $6.40). PE of 14.1 times 2013 consensus
    5.8% for BMY ($1.99 to $2.50). PE of 19.8 times 2013 consensus
    5.0% for MRK ($3.82 to $4.64). PE of 11.4 times 2013 consensus
    4.6% for PFE ($2.19 to $2.62). PE of 12.1 times 2013 consensus
    1.6% of LLY ($3.39 to $3.63). PE of 13.9 times 20123 consensus

    Consensus average annual growth for domestic pharmas for 2015-2016:

    14.3% for LLY ($2.77 to $3.63). PE of 15.0 times 2016 consensus
    08.4% for MRK ($3.81 to $4.64). PE of 09.0 times 2016 consensus
    7.5% for JNJ ($5.79 to $6.88). PE of 11.1 times 2016 consensus
    7.1% for BMY ($2.18 to $2.50). PE of 14.8 times 2016 consensus
    06.8% for ABT/ABBV ($5.61 to $6.40). PE of 11.1 times 2016 consensus
    05.3% for PFE ($2.36 to $2.62). PE of 10.4 times 2016 consensus

    PFE is no longer the best value among big, domestic pharmas; MRK now holds that distinction and JNJ is better as well.

    Sentiment: Hold

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    • I,m also concerned about the anemic future growth projections of PFE which, sooner or later, will reflect in the stock price. With this in mind what is the incentive to continue to invest in PFE? Do you have a stock price in mind when you will bail out of PFE?

    • PFE is no longer the best value among big, domestic pharmas; MRK now holds that distinction and JNJ is better as well.

      MRK, is in a down trend and market did not like their numbers.
      PFE is in an uptrend, market liked their numbers.
      JNJ is in an uptrend.

      PFE's uptrend may have more rewards than JNJ but I am not sure.
      I really liked PFE's CC and management's clarity.
      PFE is just consolidating as is the market.
      ZTS has been a successful IPO, the largest since FB.

      If I knew market would go sideways for the next 5 years, I sell everything and put it in PFE and check the price once a month. Rather than me WORKING I would let my investment WORK for me.

      By the way, good job shorting PFE, if you cover in time. Good luck.

      • 1 Reply to pfein2012
      • Thanks for your post. I did cover my Pfizer short at the end of the day yesterday and earned $2,030 after commissions for five calendar days on an investment that cost $27,620 to margin.

        Yes - ZTS was a successful IPO but still it represents only 6% of PFE holdings and is relatively small potatoes for a company Pfizer's size.

        Both MRK and PFE slightly beat estimates and then gave 2013 guidance slightly below what the Street is looking for. It doesn't make a lot of sense that Pfizer surged on its news while MRK tanked on its. The failure of the MRK osteoporosis drug isn't all that significant for a company MRK's size.

        A year ago this date, PFE was making its 2012 closing low of $20.95. It is up by 32% since then even though at that time the 2012 consensus estimate was $2.27 and actual was $2.19.

        A year ago when MRK was in the $38 area, consensus for 2012 was $3.83 and they came in with $3.82. MRK was a lot closer a year ago to actual than PFE and yet PFE stock has surged by 32% while MRK is only up by 7%. PFE has gotten a lot of mileage out of Cramer now being on board (he loves momentum stocks) and from the relatively small-potatoes ZTS spinoff. But from here on in, I think that PFE will have a tough time outperforming MRK as MRK is a faster-growing stock, has a better eividend and has a lower PE.

        I still think that PFE will get over $30 before the year is out and that's why I'm still sticking with it. In every single year going back to 1982, the annual closing range for PFE has been at least 23.7% as measured from the low close of the year to the high close. That 23.7% range occurred in the year 1988. On two other occasions, 2007 and 2012, the closing range was in the 24% area. In the other 28 years, the range was 25.0% or more.

        It's hard to go against something that has worked unfaillingly for 31 years out of 31. It's hard to see PFE going much below $24 this year - even in a bad overall market. And if the 2013 low is no lower than $24, the high close shouldn't be far from $30.

        Good luck to you in the upcoming Chinese Year of the Water Snake.

        Sentiment: Hold

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