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Pfizer Inc. Message Board

  • fizrwinnr11 fizrwinnr11 Apr 6, 2013 1:40 PM Flag

    Updating the BIDU portfolio

    03/25 - transfer in 300,000 from the Pfizer portfolio. BIDU stock is at $84.85, S & P 500 is 1,557

    03/25 - 302,740 - ($85.33) RSI 35.0
    03/27 - 318,565 - ($88.13) RSI 46.1, highest stock close to date since inception
    03/28 - 319,605 - ($87.70) RSI 44.8
    04/02 - 323,085 - ($88.12) RSI 46.6, highest valuation from inception
    04/05 - 293,125 - ($83.59) RSI 34.8, lowest stock close and valuation from inception

    Dn 02.3%. Portfolio loss to date
    Dn 00.3%. S & P 500 from inception of investment (1,557 to 1,553)

    Note: This is one of the fastest-growing companies its size in the world. The recent earnings history and consensus expectations for this dominant Chinese search engine are as follows:

    $1.53 in 2010 (actual)
    $3.02 in 2011 (actual)
    $4.79 in 2012 (actual)
    $5.40 in 2013 (consensus)
    $6.78 in 2014 (consensus)
    $9.30 in 2015 (consensus)

    And yet even with this torrid growth, BIDU at a 30-month closing low of $83.59 has only the same 12.3 PE relative to 2014 expectations that Pfizer has. This makes little sense to me even considering that BIDU earnings are slowing and that North Korean saber-rattling is depressing many Southeast Asian companies.

    This is about as compelling a buy as I've ever seen and in the fullness of time I expect to earn a small fortune here. BIDU by the way was a $166 number in mid-2011 when earnings were only $3.02 a share versus an expected $5.40 this year. Two years ago, the major competitor was formidable GOOG but onerous Chinese government restrictions are chasing that company out of China and the major competitor today is Qihoo 360 Technologies, a home-grown Chinese firm that is only 1/8 the size of BIDU.

    Sentiment: Hold

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    • Playing with options on a Chinese "high tech" company. What a great idea for a struggling senior citizen.

      What happens when BIDU can't steal from google anymore? What happens when the red government bans the internet?

      • 1 Reply to options_alchemist
      • BIDU "stealing" from GOOG? You are aware aren't you that the Chinese government has made things so tough on GOOG that that company has announced that they are going to get out of China entirely. So GOOG will no longer have to compete with such a formidable company; the chief competition now for BIDU is the Chinese home-grown company called Qihoo 360 Technologies (QIHU). How wonderful that BIDU's chief competitor now is a company only 1/8 BIDU's size and NOT GOOG. That's what makes this situation so attractive.
        As far as being a "struggling" senior citizen, where did you ever get the idea that I'm struggling? I am absolutely set for life financially; having amassed profits of over 600K since the end of 2010.
        As far as BIDU being a Chinese company is concerned, I just love it. BIDU has an effective tax rate of just 16%. Wouldn't PFE love to have such a rate? Plus as we've just seen, the Chinese government doesn't want a behemoth Amnerican company like GOOG horning in on the profits of a Chinese company like BIDU and so their government has slapped such onerous conditions on GOOG that that company has finally said "uncle" and announced that they are getting out of China.
        China now has more internet users than the U.S. has people and yet only about 30% of the Chinese currently have internet access. The percentage though is growing in leaps and bounds; internet growth in China now is like what it was in this country in a year like 1998. That being the case, BIDU's sales and earnings are growing at a considerably higher rate than even BIDU. In just the three years 2013-2015, BIDU is expected to almost DOUBLE its earnings and yet BIDU's PE relative to consensus 2014 earnings is a mere 12.3, exactly the same #$%$ earnings grower Pfizer. BIDU also has a sparkling balance sheet with a very small debt to equity ratio.
        This is about as attractive a situation as I have ever seen.

        Sentiment: Hold

    • What does a 2.3% loss for 9 trading days project to for 1 year? Can you "annualize" that loss?

32.48+0.08(+0.25%)Oct 27 4:00 PMEDT