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Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Inc. Message Board

  • dumresearcher dumresearcher Jan 5, 2013 9:22 AM Flag

    Japanese people will soon realize their bank value


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    • Agree.

      The prime driver of the 2013 rally, the yen depreciation continues strongly.
      It is at 92 now, started at 78 in nov2012.

      The yen/usd correction, which lasted in the last 4 weeks, was a "running" type, swinging around 89.0 yen/usd level, for 3 weeks,
      and looks like it ended by hitting 92 level yesterday. The yen depreciation should continue, with
      similar 1% / week speed downward.

      Paralel, NIKKEI corrected for 3 weeks, at around 10700 level,
      and looks like it finished the sideways correction. Looks ready to continue upward.

      The breakout from the longer term NIKKEI downward trend (the last downward trend started in okt.2007 !, yes, 5 years ago!) is complete, and looks stabilized. Expect at least 1 year upward trend.

      Nikkei bottomed at 7000 level in 2009febr.; which is 7000/40000=17.5% of the alltime high in 1999.

      We might need 1-2 more days to gather strength to restart upwards,
      but I think it is not required.

      The next upleg should start now, maybe a little slower and with somewhat wider swings than in the last 11 weeks. The BOJ must be careful with slight open market operations to keep the rally in balance: do not permit to slow down, and do not permit to accelerate to exponential form.

      As before with the intra-week swings, for now, the second parts #$%$) of the week looks stronger than the first 2 days..

      MFG and MTU looks the strongest of the japan banks.
      NMR is also very strong, just like Daiwa Securities.
      The exporting industrials are all strong, they started up all,
      and should at least double in price in 1 year. And the beneficiary effects of yen/usd will last for exporters for a couple more years.

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