I do not like what I am hearing as far as H5n1 making the leap.Katrina should have taught everyone to prepare for the expected yet we are surprised when civility and government services evaporate.IF the "leap" occurs the lurch modern society will be caught in is unimagineable.The drumbeat of "when" not "if" grows louder at least in the scientific community.On another front one of my friends on the CBOT who is heavily connected to farmers and farm commodities believes we will be able to keep the virus contained.Your opinion?
Have a coke.....Im a big coke investor, so yes, drink up.
Its likely that in the present future it will become transmissable man to man, and thats the critical factor. It has already been shown (various mutated strains) to be virulent in man having killed many people over the last few years.
I do believe it will become transmissable but a bit like timing the rise in ALNY, when, I do not know.
I also believe your friend is correct in that these days we have better systems to contain virus outbreaks of this kind.
However when it does becomes transmissable, globally it will spread far far faster than did the spanish flu for obvious reasons (the efficiency of global transport today). We may see lockdowns of certain regions (much like happened with SARs).
I think the government needs a real kick in the pants as this "could" become a disaster of epic proportions.
If you ask me, the government should be fast-tracking ALNY's development in any way it can (i.e. unlimited resources...whatever you need).
The world won't end, but we could see a multi year recession and stock markets around the world would sag.
We may get lucky though and nothing may happen for another 5-10 years or more....it is really hard to predict this sort of thing.....in that case we could be prepared by the time it hits.
In the meantime all we can do is
1. prevent further exposure of infected birds to man and generally the contact of Humans and birds as much as possible....i.e. keep flocks indoors etc.
2. Push forward with development of therapeutics. If ALNY does NOT get FDA fasttrack approval I would be VERY surprised.
I too, am a bull for ALNY these days. . .But there's no need to be a wolf in the chicken coop, so to speak. H5N1 will or won't happen, there's no way to know what it will be like if and when it becomes transmissible, human to human. If history is a guide, loss of virulence is a key factor in this. But you're right, let's prepare for the worst and may ALNY be first line defense. Maybe we can build a satellite laser to shoot down infected bird flocks while crossing the atlantic during their migrations - just think, it could double in the summer as a force field to stop future Katrinas. Let's pray for the best!!!!
It's not a question of whether we can contain the virus. It is whether the virus will make the jump; it isn't clear whether it will or won't. There is nothing we can do to prevent the pandemic once it makes the jump at this stage. But these things happen all the time. It won't be the end of the world.
It may not be the end of the world but you will be able to see it from there.Many think tanks and situation rooms are studying the problem.Commerce as we have come to know it slams not grinds to a halt.Air travel is restricted,global stock and commodity markets crash,medical systems are overun and people begin to think...food,water,family.Who runs the cities,delivers the food,recieves your mortgage payment?This is but a glimpse.We are fighters and optimists by nature and I pray - hard-that the fear never becomes the reality.