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Kopin Corporation Message Board

  • Themailmen Themailmen May 31, 2001 10:29 PM Flag

    Purely technical

    lower bollinger sitting just under 8, but trending higher. Appears 9sh will become solid support, unless it capitulates tomorrow or Monday, and then can go as low as 8. Overhead resistance at about 13 1/2.

    Still not oversold as RSI at 50, so this does have some downside room on any COMP weakness. Looking for about 30 on the RSI, with a touch of the lower band, is a no brainer entry. This actually coincides with when people feel the worst about a stock.

    Here is the cheat sheet for entry and exit, has been working like a charm for me lately.

    This just maximizes the lowest risk strategy and does not necessarily mean the stock goes there.

    Notice where things appeared when it topped last week.


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    • Well I think differently. Why because the MM is purley playing this one to the best he, she, or they can. They took it down near the end on low volume and then crossed a bunch of shares they kept in thier back pocket. The shorts could really be crying and those not in may pay alot more in the morning. Which way it goes is all purely Technical. I dont think SO! Sometime the best technical analysis works but sometimes they want you to think that way and it takes off and you have to pay up either way we will know in a few days which one it was. The past always is the best to learn from.
      I like your analysis but then I also like to see those not on board have to payup in the morning!


      • 1 Reply to Betterbelieveit
      • No doubt. The KOPN mm is vicious and is most likely on speed dial with Lucifer himself.

        I've seen them take it right to support, fake a bounce, draw in all the technical people then drop it like a hot coal thru support.

        I've also seen them run it from above support, so I guess my point being anything can happen, but I'm going with the technicals here and if I'm left out, there won't be one tear spilt, because if I didn't use technicals last week I'd still be holding the bag and be pretty bullshit at myself right now.


      • 2 Replies to my_opinion_99
      • actualy it bounced off 40 two weeks ago and went for a few points. Could do it again.

        Good luck!


      • Sorry to you too!!!

        read the whole post. I said there was still some room to go down, although not much. RSI is clearly on the decline and optimum entry level is RSI=30 which it has NOT achieved yet. Risk is not high at RSV=40 but is certainly not optimal.

        Blame 2 day old data on Yahoo which I used for illustration purposes only, my actual charting site does not link for various reasons.

        Point being, if we hit 9 tomorrow a side bet says RSI registers 30.

        I would be a buyer there or slightly above, as the masses will jump in, or with favorable economic data, we run from here.

        Your argument is well taken and good luck to you.


    • Leaps

      Seems like a no brainer, but priced that way for a reason. When I go long term on options, I look at the premium I pay. In other words, what are the chances of KOPN being 10 in July.
      If the chances are high, I'm going to lose money just on time decay. So let's evaluate this:

      First off your paying $2.50 premium (call + strike) on a stock that's only 9.5 bucks to begin with.

      Ask yourself, would you want to pay a 30% premium on a December bet, when right now there is still speculation regarding last half of the year. It is still a gamble.

      All evidence points to a recovery for KOPN, including ramp up in cyberdisplay, however wasn't it last year about this time that Dr Fan was suggesting that cyberdisplay would be shipping 300K units per month by last year-end and 50K gross sales by this fiscal year.

      Last year, I came close to buying December 40's at what I thought was a ridiculously low price in August. I would have got killed

      Order pushouts are deadly. Look what it did to TQNT, and they can strike at the most inopportune time and without notice.

      If you really want to do December's, I would go with December 5's from a risk perspective. Only .80 premium, and I'm sure you can squeeze the bid, the spread is so large.

      If you want to gamble, go with the cheapest options which have the highest probability of going into the money.

      I love July 12.5's at .50, if I squeeze the bid and get .4 I can buy 100 contracts for throw away money. Definitely a gamble, but if KOPN can get to 15, these are worth 25K at least.

      One of the members of my Rbull board bought June 12.5's for the last run and they were a 5 bagger when he was done.


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