There was an item on NPR the other night that started me thinking...With talks in the news about Iran and nuclear negotiations...the ramifications include a significant amount of oil coming into the world market, possibly depressing prices below attractive levels for higher cost US domestic production. Anyone run that scenario?
The world is recovering after five years in the toilet. Commodity prices are abating. in the last 115 years there have been only 3 secular bull markets (1923 - 30), (1952 - 1968) and (1982 - 2000). All were accompanied by relatively low commodities. All the other periods in between were dominated by commodities and the market traded within a range. In the modern world oil is essential in any sustained economic period. There may be enough oil to keep the price from reaching $148 again: however, in an around $100 is most likely and E&P's can do very well at those levels.