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Permian Basin Royalty Trust Message Board

  • markseiler56 markseiler56 Jan 4, 2013 12:38 AM Flag

    Today's 5.59% move higher?

    Anybody care to speculate why this move today???

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    • The current dividend is based on $90 average price for oil in October. The price is now close to $100. The market is now anticipating greater dividends ahead, which is a reversal from what has happened throughout 2012.

    • Don't look at the one day trend only. Pretty much all O&G Trusts have been declining dramatically since October. At first I thought it was tax selling and I began loading up on them in December anticipating a January rally. I now think tax selling was only a small portion of the end of 2012 decline and I believe the main reason for the large declines was the belief that the Democrats would change tax policy and eliminate the tax advantages of O&G Trusts. This didn't happen and most of the trusts have a ways to go to be back at previous price levels that were maintained when Oil and Gas were at similar prices to what we have now. 5.59% is really not that great of a move. PBT should easily stabilize around $16 in just a couple of months.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • 1 Reply to tardeded
      • Hello Tardeded

        I think your right on with your comments, thanks. I've been in around 17 and rode it down earlier in the fall to the high 13's.

        I was also watching how the distributions have been pummeled this year after they appear to be netting out the cap expenditures which are significantly greater than average. (I was a few months ago when I looked at the last 4 of 10k reports).

        You would think that the massive cap ex would soon start paying off in a big way but I have not noticed improved production.

        Sentiment: Buy

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