The entire fertilizer industry has been under pressure for over a couple of months as the USDA is projecting a huge corn harvest. This would indicate a high level of corn inventory going into next year, which is not good for fertilizer producers in US. Having said that, we view the USDA estimates as overly optimistic and that corn inventory levels will necessitate another large planting of corn next year ... in excess of 90 million acres. We will know better in October once harvest comes in.
Fertilizer (especially Nitrogen) prices have been on the downswing the last few months. Is this the bottom? I'm not sure. But, I do know that fertilizer pricing goes in cycles - and the cycle is sure to turn back up over the medium/long term. May need to wait a year or two, but I'm starting to accumulate now. Hard to catch the bottom, but if you start accumulating now and are patient (hold for 2 years or more), you should be well rewarded (Divs, albeit reduced, whil you wait - cap appreciation down the road). All IMO.