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ClickSoftware Technologie (CKSW) Message Board

  • Fujigrower Fujigrower Feb 3, 2010 10:18 PM Flag

    Nicely done (again!)

    It is clear some investors were disappointed with Click's Q4 earnings report and as we saw in Q3, a number of them headed for the exits.

    My reaction is reflected in two words. Nicely done.

    In Q3 investor concern with the weak bookings was understandable. Any concern with that metric, however, should be largely erased by the outstanding $21 million in Q4 bookings.

    The 17% to 22% revenue growth guidance was likely a factor in today's sell off. That is an impressive growth number for any company but does fall short of spectacular. Investors hoping for a "to da moon" spike should probably invest in a different company.

    I am delighted that Moshe and Schmuel kept guidance conservative. "Under-promise and over-deliver" is the best platform for building investor and customer confidence over the long term.

    Long term investors can smile if Click simply delivers the guidance for 2010. As a bonus, the company has the potential to beat it.

    Some conference call quotes worth noting:

    "We start 2010 with $27.4 million in backlog and deferred revenue vs. $17.9 million at the same time last year. This is 37.5% of what we need to hit the midpoint of our 2010 revenue target."

    "We are very confident with these projections ($71.5 to $75 million in 2010 revenue) based on the data."

    "We started Q1 (2009) with 39 active RFP's. That number grew to 46 in Q2, 57 in Q3 and 76 in Q4."

    "In 2009 we started a campaign to increase the number of leads coming into our system. The pipeline of license revenue leads grew from $60 million in March to $130 million in December, giving us a comfortable basis for sales in 2010 and beyond."

    "License invoices from new customers was 57% higher in 2009 than 2008. The number of new customers sold grew from 16 to 28. The number of licenses (# of technicians) sold to new customers was up 78%.

    "Professional services backlog looks good with a substantial list of new projects already started in 2009 or about to start in 2010."

    Click finished 2009 with 295 employees, up 69 employees (30%) YOY.

    Another factor worth noting is two of Click's four 2010 growth engines, ClickRoster and and IMRS/ServiceTycoon, are still just warming up. While ServiceTycoon is a longer term project, ClickRoster and IMRS both have potential to contribute far higher revenue levels than they did in 2009.

    My favorite investment saying is from hockey great Wayne Gretsky. "Most players skate to where the puck is. I skate to where the puck is going to be."

    Is Click's puck going to move to an SAP buyout at $15 per share? Possible but unlikely. Is it going to a sudden spike in revenue and profits? Possible but again unlikely.

    Will the puck move to another very solid year in climbing revenues, profits, competitive position and share price? Nothing is guaranteed but I like our chances. I also think there is a reasonable chance in a recovering global economy Click can exceed its 2010 revenue guidance.

    Congratulations and thanks to the entire Click team for another outstanding quarter and year. This shareholder is appreciative of your accomplishments in 2009 and optimistic regarding the outlook and opportunities in 2010.

    Good luck to everyone.

    Fujigrower@gmail.com

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    • As always, Good to hear from you and your comments! Good luck to you Fuji!

    • Fuji,
      As always thank your for your astute analysis.

      I however have a couple of comments...

      We are all invested in CKSW to see our money grow. Afterall that is why we all are here for: To make Money. All the talk on long term, etc. is nice. BUT in the final analysis in the long term we all be dead too. :)

      You state:
      "I am delighted that Moshe and Schmuel kept guidance conservative. "Under-promise and over-deliver" is the best platform for building investor and customer confidence over the long term."

      Investor confidence is build when they see returnes on their money by holding on to their shares - (and not trading in and out of the stock).

      How can investors' confidence be built when the returns have not been as impressive as the company's performance? Again, think of why we all are invested in CKSW in the first place, and that is to make money.

      If share holders were getting some type of dividents, then.. YES, that would have definitely made a difference. But in the absence of realizing such direct gains as dividents, how can the YoYo movement of the stock downward build investor confidence (regardless of how much the company has made)?

      You state:
      "Long term investors can smile if Click simply delivers the guidance for 2010. As a bonus, the company has the potential to beat it. "

      Yes, there is a good chance the company will beat. BUT, what is the use? Are share holders getting any dividents out of it? NO!

      So what share holders have is the equity (i.e .shares of the stock), which will in all likelihood remain at the same levels (if history to hold and to repeat itself which seems to be the case with CKSW).

      In the final analysis lets face it, CKSW (the company) is doing OK, and will not go banjrupt anytime soon. But CKSW (the stock) is a horrible investment for it does not reflect the fundamentals of the company's bottom line.

      It is said the stock price will catchup with the fundamentals eventually. This may come true for CKSW. But it will be a long long long long long time for it to happen. May force be at the side of Looooooooooongggggggg term investors who will never be able to cash-in to enjoy life (for after all that is why they invested in the first place)! :)

      • 4 Replies to ajpb
      • excellent post!!

      • revup_cashflowpos_0debt_grtprod revup_cashflowpos_0debt_grtprod Feb 4, 2010 1:27 PM Flag

        AJPJ wrote
        <<<
        In the final analysis lets face it, CKSW (the company) is doing OK, and will not go banjrupt anytime soon. But CKSW (the stock) is a horrible investment for it does not reflect the fundamentals of the company's bottom line.

        It is said the stock price will catchup with the fundamentals eventually. This may come true for CKSW. But it will be a long long long long long time for it to happen.
        >>>

        Yeah its frustrating to see the pps languish. But the time to buy a stock is when the pps does not reflect the good fundamenals of the company. I wish I could find 6 other stocks like CKSW to invest in, to have a diversified promising portfolio. So far I have found 2: CKSW and CTCH See http://finance.yahoo.com/q/cq?d=v1&s=ctch,cksw

      • ajpb, Thanks for your viewpoint. I am not surprized by the volatility in the stock price between the $5-$9 share price area. After all, we have seen huge gains in this stock. The fluctuations in price might actually be healthy as it has a cleaning affect. I hope now that we see some calmness after the 2009 storm and a sort of strengthening in the $6-$8 area. If this happens and the Click team can continue their building block momentum, we might just see the $12 range in a year or 2.

        Happy Investing.

      • The 120% plus growth share appreciation in 2009 wasn't a big enough return for your portfolio? If you want a dividend by a Dow stable

    • Thank you Fuji!
      I will add if this drops around $6 to my position.

    • P.S. "To da moon" valuations and investing is an aspect of Wall Street my conservative brain still struggles to understand. I do respect that those valuations, however crazy they seem to me, can happen.

      As one example, Concur Technologies (CNQR) is a Seattle area software company providing solutions for tracking employee expense accounts. CNQR also reported earnings today with some similar metrics to Click. CNQR's quarterly net profit was $.12 per share with revenue up 17% YOY and 4% sequentially. The key difference is with earnings per share and revenue growth comparable to Click, CNQR trades at $40 per share.

      http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Concur-Reports-Strong-Revenue-prnews-3038599828.html/print;_ylt=AlpZzEYIWTEH1nSXOu0uySqxcq9_;_ylu=X3oDMTBwNjZiaWw5BHBvcwMxBHNlYwN0b29scwRzbGsDcHJpbnQ-?x=0

      It is fun to live in a world where anything can happen.

      • 2 Replies to Fujigrower
      • Hi Fuji,

        I had not looked at CNQR...ha you are right...it's MC is 10x that of CKSW with the same EPS... CNQR is selling at 80x earnings.,.. I suspect the biggest difference is the fact CNQR is a USA corp whereas CKSW is Foreign owned... Many, Many investors will not even consider a foreign owned company so our investor pool is much smaller... this too will pass... There is no way CKSW should be valued at less than 20 PE today.. no way, but here we are... go figure..

        I am buying (even more).

        Cheers

      • Thanks for the valuable insight Fuji - as usual. It inspires confidence in Click - patient investors have been rewarded in 2009, and I see that continuing in 2010.

        Hopefully we can get to a valuation similar to CNQR. What are the big differences between CKSW and CNQR - is it how these companies project themselves to the street?

        jazz

 
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