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Ancestry.com Inc. Message Board

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  • asp924 asp924 Apr 29, 2011 9:53 PM Flag

    Can anyone justify this +43% move fundamentally today????

    guess no one can.

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    • I can't justify why ACOM fell from 38 to 31 from mid-Feb to the end of April, nor can I justify why it made it all back, and then some, yesterday. I can, however, justify on a fundamental basis why it trades at 45. It is growing its EBITDA at 40% per yaer and trading at about 15x current year EBITDA. That is an incredibly low multiple for a high growth internet stock. As a multiple or EBITDA it trades at a huge discount to OPEN, for instance. A year from now if it trades at 15x 2012 EBITDA, the stock will be in the mid-60s. OPEN is growing EBITDA only slightly faster, 50% per year. It rades at a 45x EBITDA multiple. Put another way, OPEN is projected to generate about $55 million in EBITDA this year, only about 40% of what ACOM is expected to generate, and yet OPEN sports an enterprise value that is more tan 25% higher than ACOM. If/when ACOM is accorded the same multiple as similarly growing OPEN, it would trade at roughly 140. Reflect upon that my friends...

    • No wonder ACOM is now starting it's 15% sell=off from Fridays high now.

      Longs are stupid for not taking profits.