after full dilution from ARCO options . Lum is a 350% bagger right now.
dont forget LUM history Back in April 2004 LUM issued its 1st Quarter earnings release announcing Q1 income of $10.8 million and diluted EPS of $0.43 on 25 million float. Mortgage assets held at March 31, 2004 were approximately $4.1 billion this was their April 2004 earnings announcement filed with 8-K in 2004:
At that time JPM rated LUM "strong buy" at $18.00/share target and analysts were anticipating LUM annual EPS in the $1.70's to $2's range.
Now in its most recent 10Q, LUM says its Mortgage assets are $5+ billion even after non-cash write-offs and LUM has REIT taxable Income per share of $0.97 for only nine months ended (pg 34 10-Q) up from $0.71 same period 2006.
Back in 2004 its Q1 cash from operating activities was $17.2million on 25 mil shs or $0.68/sh in 1st Q(see page 5 of this):
so if we anualized that operating cash/share from 1 quarter of operations in 2004 (0.68 x 4=$2.7/share)we can compare target share price in 2004 of $18 on $2.7 cash/share = 6.7 multiple of per share operating cash flow; if we apply that multiple to latest 2007 3rd Q 10-Q cash flow: net cash from 9 months operations $22.7 million / 45 mil shares =$0.50. so if we anualized that 9 month operating cash it would be (22.7/12x9)=30.3 million. that translates to $0.74/share cash x 6.7 multiple =LUM is worth $4.95/shar or fully diluted its $2.48/share; that number gets me close to Cubemeister's recent post Cubemeister took a balnce sheet aproach - I am takiing an operating cash flow approach since in these times cash and liquidity are critical.
The 6.7 multiple is conservative
my use of the 6.7 multiple above is conservative if I move ahead to the LUM 2004 3rd Q results which increase the multiple to 7.6 as calculated below
total assets 4.6 bil
operating cash flow 62.1 mil
37 mil shares o/s
cash from operations pershare = 1.7
share price 12 to 13 (at that time see http://finance.yahoo.com/charts#chart2:symbol=lum;range=5y;charttype=candlestick;crosshair=on;logscale=on;source=undefined)
12.5/share / 37 mil shares = multiple 7.4 <<-- this multiple conservatively supports the 6.7 multiple I used above -- using this multiple LUM is worth $2.7 fully diluted
Good post pm! Keep up the great work. That is definitely in sync with the common consensus and breakdown of where LUM stands.
Now that we are on the subject of analyses and analysts: For those who had missed my earlier post, I had sent out a mail to every analyst covering LUM asking them when their next update/evaluation of LUM is going to be issued. I had got a response from Steven Delaney of JMP Securities. Below is the post which has his reply enclosed:
You are not far off from Stephen Laws price target back on October 2nd. With 5 billion still on the books it is way undervalued at this price.
Deutsche Bank analyst Stephen Laws raised his price target on the stock to $2.25 from $1.50. While his price target still represents a discount to the value of the company's assets, he said a smaller discount is now warranted because Luminent's balance sheet is safer.
thanks leebret, I know you already know, I know you have already seen my picture post but I am putting it up again for others (especially longs getting spooked by shorts and bashers) because Gramercy ARCO et al all know this is the value of LUM and that is why they got the strangle hold on it with the options and that is why they moved LUM to Philly, so all you shorts can stuff it!