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Sturm, Ruger & Co. Inc. Message Board

  • captainwho2 captainwho2 Apr 3, 2013 8:45 PM Flag

    Q1 2013 NICS up +44.5% vs Q1 2012 up +14.3% = Accelerating Growth

    When the Adj. NICS Checks come out for March, we'll see that it is even greater than 44.5%, which is a better indicator of RGR's Sales Growth, but they always beat that number by a huge amount.

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    • There are four reasons I believe CEO Fifer is a star.

      1) Doesn't give forward guidance. A ridiculous practice.
      2) Shrank the Board from 9 Directors to 7. He must believe Directors are worthless. I agree.
      3) Returning 40% of profits to shareholders as dividends, instead of using profits to repurchase overpriced stock, or failing businesses.
      4) Avoiding debt.

      The last is most important. Every time I have been cheated by an executive he has borrowed money to pay himself a big bonus.

      The danger of Ruger shares is that the company may be crushed by liberal Democrats, but I can't see any evidence to support this theory.

      • 2 Replies to puzzled48
      • Correction to my comment below. I see that Fifer is not compensated as a director. Therefore, I commend him for that and retract my comment with regard to that issue.

      • Re: your #2) How is he a "star" for believing directors are worthless if he continues to take his excessive pay as one of the directors?

        Re: your #3) I agree with you that dividends are good and Ruger's behavior regarding them is good. In Ruger's case I think they should be even more than 40% since there is no debt to repay and cash flow is good. This is confirmed by the fact that they accumulated so much earnings in cash that they could pay the big special dividend a few months ago.

        I also agree that dividends are better than company repurchase of its stock. However, If Ruger was the purchaser of the insider share sales that were non-market transactions, then Fifer is no "star" by your own criteria. When will Ruger management reveal if it used the company to repurchase insider shares?

    • The analysts are only looking for +34% according to Fidelity (+27.8% according to Yahoo) EPS growth in Q1 '13 and +17.2% Sales Growth vs +88% EPS Growth and (???) Sales Growth in Q1 '12. This obviously does not come close to matching what I just posted above.........HUGE DISCREPANCY in that they are not predicting accelerated growth for the quarter but the actual NICS data shows that there is ! Also the full year 2012 EPS Growth came in at +73% and last quarter was +89%. I have a feeling that they will be raising their estimates over the next few weeks, reluctantly, so as not to look like complete fools. The analysts don't know what they are doing, or are deliberately being negative for political reasons.

      If anyone knows what the Sales Growth for Q1 '12 was, year over year, please fill in that missing data. Or maybe I'll look it up when I'm feeling less lazy.

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