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Sturm, Ruger & Co. Inc. Message Board

  • imarugerfan imarugerfan Apr 19, 2013 6:37 PM Flag

    NICS numbers irrelevant for first quarter

    For all of first quarter Ruger had a large backlog and sold everything it could make. So NICS numbers are irrelevant. Revenue increase will be determined by the amount of any capacity increase, any price increases, and any change in the mix of guns produced. Profit will be determined by any change in costs. Those changes could have many causes including shifting of costs to/from the prior or the next quarter.

    Revenues could also be determined by revenue shifting to/from the prior or next quarter. For example, it has been reported on this board that Ruger records revenue when it ships product. Suppose Ruger had fininshed product ready to ship during the last part of March. If management wanted to depress Q1 sales and inflate Q2 sales, they could simply delay shipping until April 1. I sure don't know if management wanted to do that and I doubt anyone else knows either. But the fact that management could easily do that makes accurately predicting a quarter result very difficult

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    • So let me get this right. You are implying rgr management is manipulating its reporting. A felony.
      And you are long?

      Nics numbers are relevant only if examined on a macro basis. You should understand there are more manufacturers than rgr.

      • 2 Replies to harry_bahls_1
      • Maybe you were referring to what I called shuffling. How is delaying the shipment of merchandise by a few days a felony? How would the choice to make the purchase of some desired service a few weeks earlier or later (so it falls in one quarter or the other) commit a felony?

        Apparently, in your world, every action is either black or white and is on some timetable fixed to the nanosecond.

      • What are you talking about? I am not saying or implying anything, good or bad, about Ruger management.

        All I have said is that simple logic says as long as Ruger has a long backlog and is producing at full capacity then it doesn't matter what number the NICS is. This is simply because NICS could go to zero and Ruger would still produce at full capacity until the backlog is filled. And NICS to go up as high as the moon and Ruger would still produce the same quantity because it is at full capacity and can't produce more no matter how many are being sold at retail.

    • "NICS numbers irrelevant for first quarter"

      Nice move opening up a new thread. Now I know you're a short and you couldn't possibly be more WRONG. Gun retailers were stripped clean of all gun manufacturers products (and distributors) very quickly after Sandy Hook (12/14), which was two weeks before the end of Q4. After that, it was a flow thru situation where as soon as the distributor received a shipment they were immediately stripped clean and all of it was sent to the retailers, which were also immediately stripped clean. So, in other words, there was very little time delay between when the NICS check was performed at the point of retail sale and RGR (or other manufacturers for that matter) were able to add that same item(s) to their Revenue for the Quarter, since it had been shipped to the distributor.

      I wonder if you are the kind of person who flips the chess board over and says........No it isn't No it isn't No it isn't!

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