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Sturm, Ruger & Co. Inc. Message Board

  • puzzled48 puzzled48 Apr 23, 2013 6:08 PM Flag

    Brian Rafn, Morgan Dempsey Capital, sees great potential in the gun industry

    Link to CNBC video interview with Brian Rafn 5 days ago.

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    • Mandy: "Does Sturm Ruger have a better investment thesis than some of the other gun makers, or is there a better stock out there?"

      Brian Rafn: "Well I think the problem with the gun industry is....there's really only two big public players. If you look at Marlin or Mossberg or Savage or Stag Arms or Heckler & Koch....they're private companies. So when you look at the US market, you've got Sturm Ruger and you've got....uhhh ......uhhh....you know Smith & Wesson. You also have the ammunition market which is about $7B in size, to the $4B gun market.....that's Olin, Alliant Techsystems. But the major players......Remington, Winchester....again these are all private....Freedom pulled their.....their deal....so you're really talking about two companies."

    • Mandy (blonde aussie broad): "I mean you said it, the politics has been f'in hot and they will probably continue to be hot for some time Brian. What is the regulatory risk at this stage for the sector and how much do you want to do me?"

      Brian Rafn: "Well I think if you look at the defeat in the Senate, it's the Battle of Midway for Obama (LOL), he's got four carriers sunk and one on fire......uhhh......you know, you really look at the Liberal Left.....the Gun Control People are probably going to go now to the UN....the ATT Small Arms Treaty. Uhhh....that's a treaty, it's a foreign treaty....it's probably gonna have difficulty in the Senate and the House......the issue there is a National Gun Registry. You've got about 300M to 400M guns in the US, with about 90M gun owners......uhhh....you know, the ability to confiscate or seize or register that is gonna be a real hard upward....upward battle. It's just not something that the gun control people have......you've gotta understand that that train has left the station. And the answer to the second question is !@#$%."

      Brian Sullivan: "Yeah but lets get past the little bit of ......sort of the rhetoric on this Brian and get down to the stocks themselves. Analyze them like any other stock that doesn't have the political nature. These stocks have had big runs up and with that evaluations have gone up.....we know also that there's not a lot of product out there. Gun sales have been so strong, there's often a backlog. Fundamentally, is there one of these two companies that looks better than the other?"

      Brian Rafn: "Well ss..sure. You certainly have companies like Sturm Ruger that have a ton of cash. We own Sturm Ruger and have for about 20 years. Uhhh....the ability to accessorize...like the AR-15....now that's a $2000 SR556 at Ruger. Now you can put on laser scopes, you can put on stocks, you can put on magazines, clips.....uhhh......that's a big market. Sturm Ruger also has withdrawn (see prev)"

    • Brian Sullivan: "........You have no problem saying...I love Sturm Ruger as a stock and I'm buyin' more. How come?

      Brian Rafn: "Well I think you have to look at the gun industry. It's a demographic play.....I know the politics have been pretty hot, but you have a lot of elderly people that are buying for self defense, you've got a lot of women, you've got about a $4B core industry in pistols, revolvers, shotguns, and rifles, but you've got about $7B in ammunition. Around that, the whole industry's about $32B, so you've got a ton of accessories.....umm.....and you've got a lot of new participants. For the gun industry.....it's gonna be bringing in those new participants in that bought their first gun....and getting them acclimated, getting them accessorized and getting them to purchase....you know, other guns, and getting them involved in hunting, target shooting and that. We think it's still a very viable market."

    • "Sturm Ruger has withdrawn from the shotgun market for the last several years, and you know, an over and under or side by side shotgun is anywhere from $1,400 to $1,500 upwards of.....when we were in NYC, Beretta had a quarter of a million dollars gun......beautiful full wood guns, all kinds of gold engraving, and that's an idea.....that's a product line that I think you're going to see in the next few years going out."

    • videoDOTcnbcDOTcom/gallery/?video=3000162409

 
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