I'll take a guess on Trading High just for fun. I'm not as optimistic as you, since your guess, when adjusted for the $4.50 spec. divvy they paid not too long ago, would be the equivalent of $61.50 vs the all-time high of $60.11.
My most optimistic guess is for $53.50, considering the fact that the market is kind of frothy and that is going to weigh somewhat on extreme enthusiasm. That would put it up near the top of the Keltner Channel, which often serves as a near term resistance level. If RGR management would give a little forward guidance then I think your estimate could be wildly possible, but they seem adamantly against that.
I can't figure out what that flow through discussion means. I think it means earnings were pulled into this quarter at the expense of future quarters because of inventory shortages.. But if the new products are as popular as advertised, who cares! We will sell a lot of product.
If you are going to adjust for the $4.50 special dividend (and I think you should), then the all time adjusted high is somewhere around $63.00. The stock traded in the 58's back in February.
Excellent insight Cap...very fair estimate. I recall that high of 60.11, which if memory serves me well, I believe you hit that one just about On the Money. Guess we'll see what happens.
I'm estimating a Rev beat of around 9% vs analysts consensus, giving a 27% growth vs analsyts est. of 17%. That's a minimum, and would be no small shakes when most companies are not only missing on Revenue, but posting negative growth. EPS will be a beat also, but that is harder to guess. We'll have to see how much capex they did, and how much they were able to boost production capacity.