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Vitamin Shoppe, Inc. Message Board

  • investora2z investora2z Mar 30, 2013 10:40 AM Flag

    Good for long term after fall stops

    The fall which started on February 26th is slowing down a little. After that huge single day fall due to the earnings for Q4'12 the stock has tried to remain afloat but the supports seem to be weak. On the day, the VSI fell from $63 to $51 with tremendous volumes of 4.27 million shares vs around 200K during the preceding days. The volumes have come down slightly indicating that momentum on the downside has reduced. During the fall over the last one month, the stock has broken the supports, and is presently trading below the short term averages (50 DMA - $55.21 and 200 DMA - $57.34). The sales growth for Q4'12 was lower andfor the full year 2012, it grew from $856 million in 2011 to $950 million. The net income increased from around $45 million to $61 million during the same period. The EPS grew from $1.52 to $2.02. During 2012, it acquired Super Supplements which has 31 stores in Washington for $50 million. During 2013, the company plans to open approximately 50 new stores, and the capex is expected at between $45 - $50 million. The expected revenue is in the range of $1.1 billion. At the current market price, the market capitalization is $1.46 billion giving a very modest sales to market cap ratio. The forward P/E is 17.45 and price to book is 3.26. The operating margin is 10.45%, and quarterly earnings growth is around 2.8%. Debt on books is nearly zero and it had cash of around $81.17 million on 31st December. Out of this, $50 million has been spent on acquisition of Super Supplements recently. The positives in the fundamentals make it a good stock for investing after the fall stops and the stock starts to consolidate. The long term story of vitamin / supplements is positive with the market growing at a healthy rate. New products like BluScience from ChromaDex Corporation (CDXC), and newer companies like MusclePharm (MSLP) have shown good growth. VSI would do well to get newer products on board to enhance sales growth.

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