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The Buckle, Inc. Message Board

  • flyingzorbaman flyingzorbaman Sep 24, 2009 11:42 AM Flag

    Here comes the bloodbath, shorty

    Time to confiscate their belts and shoelaces. Close and secure all open windows above two stories.

    9.6 million shares short kids.

    The fun starts now!

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    • i don't know if it was me who mentioned it first but if not then i am in agreement with the theory shorts are waiting for the q3 cc to run the pps down with anything other than an upside suprise.

      my guess is that it might represent the remenets of the bears crumbling theory that the big pullback was/is immenent. with the "depression" averted and the recession appearently bottoming (according to bernake and buffet) the positions bears took out when they believed the market was heading down are still in place in some areas. bke seems to be one of them. it'll be interesting to see how they unwind it and make their exit. i would not at all be surprised to see bke deliver an upside surprise at the q3 call and i would not be surprised if the mm's are anticipating that themselves. but when you are the market there isn't a graceful exit without massive volume for them to sell into.

      this could be fertile ground for starting a rumor that could hurt the pps in the short term and create an opportunity for the mm's to get out.

      OR...we are seeing them quietly cover and that is what's driving the pps up now. buying just a little at a time and slowly trying to make their exit while retail shorts who are sticking to their thesis that the market is due for a major correction take their position as short.

      one thing we know for sure. it's either the retail shorts or longs that will be the bagholders. it's not going to be the mm's.

    • My take....using the NAIC methodology.

      % pre tax profit on sales last 5years....up
      starting in 2004...
      14.4, 16.5, 16.5, 19.1, 20.4

      % Return on equity last 5 years...up
      starting in 2004...
      14.2, 16.5, 17.8, 24,9, 29.1

      % debt to equity....even
      Zero debt

      5 year average high PE 18.6
      Current pe 13.1

      buy range 26-33 with a 3.9 upside/downside ratio

      Relative Value 88% (80-100 = good)

      I'm long at 27.31

    • Well done and well said prospecto!

    • You're completely right stroker, imo. I think there will be sellers unloading for that reason. BUT, I don't think that's going to help the traders who shorted between $27-29. Someone on the board suggested that shorts could try to hold out for the next sss numbers as an opportunity to run the pps down. Credible idea and of course those numbers will come into play somehow. I just don't see $29 though.

      However, institutional shorty has another option that seems feasible to me. After getting burned on the short side, they could buy and go long, bringing BKE back to its historical P/E and getting back some of their short side losses. They should know better than anyone that they've made a bad bet and that BKE is undervalued. Take the short interest pressure off and turn it into buying pressure (and general buzz), it could exceed BKE's historical P/E and begin to garnish a more premium valuation similar to some of its peers.

      Maybe I'm dreaming on that one, but I don't think $29 pps is going to happen again this year.

    • I'm one of those longs you speak of, but not getting out now just as things have turned positive for me. Came to the party late @ mid-33's and was along for the painful ride DOWN on every piece of GOOD news. Fortunately, I believed in this company and bought the dips and sold the spikes during that painful period and managed to get my cost basis to mid-28's.

      Now that the tide has begun to turn...I'm not getting out without extracting a pound of flesh...and then some

    • as long as we close over over 23.20 today we go to 36 ish and then 38 and then....need volume though the short squeeze hasnt happened yet

    • The price action was nice, but as others are saying, no real volume. The day you see a spike in price and a million or better shares traded by noon, will be the day. Again...Just my opinion

    • good for you. enjoy your long position and your maturity.

    • your the idiot that stated the obvious that calls are up and puts are down like thats unusual when a stock is up. oh and now you have to brag that you made money to a long, mature much?

    • theres not going to be a blood bath without major volume

27.59+0.47(+1.73%)Jul 27 4:02 PMEDT