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The Buckle, Inc. Message Board

  • nsthil nsthil Mar 2, 2010 10:50 AM Flag

    BKE Feb 2009 SSS was 21%

    In Jan 2009 it was 14% and they cam in at -1.9% in January 2010. With a much tougher comp in Feb and bad weather the Feb comp # could be down mid single digits or worse. That does not sound like a recipe for a rally imo.

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    • looks like you were correct. SSS for Feb up 5.1%.

    • I think SSS will be strong. After last month, the bar is lower. The list of states that BKE stores are in, aren't in the majority of states that got pounded with snow. Most of them are in the west midwest and south. Mich. and Minn. have many, but NY only three, New Jersey only three and Maryland has three. On the flip side Cal. has nineteen stores. I say good SSS and good earnings. We can always have an over/unders poll, like a football total for fun.

    • You may be able to cover for a profit if Feb SSS look bad, but Q4 is due on March 11, and Oct-Dec numbers were all better than forecasts not to mention sales from new stores and online sales (which have been strong) I don't see a very long window of opportunity to cover, and if Feb numbers look good, you'll be in trouble.

    • Just noting that they have a heavy capital expense period here with 11 new store openings and a $27 million expenditure primarily occuring in the first half of the fy against a backdrop of slowing SSS.

      Nah I have not covered yet btw. Short at around 30.80 avg.

    • We'll see what happens. SSS were down in Jan, but Earnings were still up over 4%. Come later this year comps will get easier and they will have a ton of cash on the books. You could be right about a correction short term, but you are wrong if you think this under performs the market further out.

      • 1 Reply to chrishasty_1982
      • Keep in mind that Feb 2008 comps were up 24% so the Feb 2009 figure up 21% was even more incredible.

        January 2008 comps were 19% and then 14% last year and down to -1.2% this past January.

        BKE has indicated they need 4% sss comps to get operating leverage.

        Most recently they closed 4 stores in January and have close to $30 million in expense related to the new distribution center that has to be addressed in the first half of this year.

        The valuation and cash generation of BKE still appealing but they have some short term headwinds here.

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