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The Buckle, Inc. Message Board

  • floppy_6 floppy_6 Apr 25, 2010 2:14 PM Flag

    Teen market 2010 vs. 2007

    Take the consortium of URBN, ARO, AEO, ANF, RUE, HOTT, WTSLA, ZUMZ and BKE to represent the entire teenage market, also take Thomson's average analysts' revenue estimates for 2010, I find this market 2010 to grow 6% over 2007 gross sales, that's quite amazing considering the following negative factors.

    1) Teen unemployment rate is still one out of four.
    2) National unemployment near 10%.
    3) New Entrants such as "forever 21" aren't included in comparison.

    Individual growth over 2007 are as follows:

    URBN 38%
    ARO 56%
    AEO 3%
    ANF -31% (excluding international)
    RUE 120%
    HOTT 0%
    WTSLA -1%
    ZUMZ 19%
    BKE 55%

    Well, amazing! Either American family are overly optimistically courageous or analysts are way out of line optimistic

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