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OmniVision Technologies, Inc. Message Board

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  • erickarr Feb 27, 2011 4:36 PM Flag

    Eric Karr personal message

    goutah you may be an investor, but, as you admit, you're no trader.
    first, sam, sony and aptina are now ahead of ovt. aptina owns the phone space based on revenues, sam's catching up with it, and sony beat ovt on revs (not units sold) regardless of end market. and the combined effect of all 3 competitors is just getting started.

    among other indicators and based on current industry research, i use a combination of "overbought" indicators and max/current pain to decide when to short and when to cover. use to document my moves on these boards. rarely lost but i wait for tons of hype and overbought to short usually based on a rumor that's circulating or an anomaly that can't be explained (like how come w/ huge increase in revs and proportion of highest resolutions sold, how come asp only rose from 1.29 to 1.37 and margins--considering inventory writedowns--remained flat?)

    in the past, in retrospect, when you criticized tina for having a sell on ovt when it was at 10 down to 4, i kept thinking, does goutah know the meaning of "hindsight is always 20/20?" at the time, i did not agree w/ tina (i was shocked it got below 10 but it seemed like it wanted to go lower and i'm not one for fighting a trend on huge volume) but i understood why she felt that way.

    now, i see the competition mounting and no more drawingboard tech to hype. i feel ovt may have seen its best days. jmho.

    the blowout q2 and q3 guidance a few months ago did not seem to elevate the price even though a lot of chip peers were making new highs daily. that should mean something to you. and lastly, a lot of traders view a hold as a sell and go find something worth buying (something you'd categorize as a buy v. hold).

    but i still enjoy reading your post. enjoy your day nelson. :o)

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    • >> goutah you may be an investor, but, as you admit, you're no trader. <<

      That's for sure. I'd be broke by now if I were a trader. I have no aptitude for trading.

      >> in the past, in retrospect, when you criticized tina for having a sell on ovt when it was at 10 down to 4, i kept thinking, does goutah know the meaning of "hindsight is always 20/20?" <<

      Well, it wasn't entirely hindsight. When OVTI was trading in the single digits in late 2008, Tina rated it a "strong sell" (not a simple "sell", as you claim). Even the most cursory fundamental analysis of OVTI at the time would have led any reasonably intelligent investor to declare that OVTI, despite whatever troubles it was having, was severely undervalued at $4 or $5 or $6. Tina's "strong sell" rating during that period caused me to conclude that her connections with the realities of investing were pretty shaky. Not so much because her advice was eventually proven wrong (which can happen to anyone who gives advice), but because it was so abundantly clear at the time that OVTI was severely undervalued and was therefore a good medium-term investment. I therefore heavily discounted her subsequent ratings of the stock. To me, rating OVTI as a "strong sell" at $4 in December 2008 was equivalent to saying that the earth is flat. A person who makes such a ridiculous assertion loses a lot of credibility.

      So has Tina regained her credibility with he subsequent calls? Not really.

      During the 2.25 years since OVTI bottomed at $4, Tina has been more or less constantly predicting the imminent downturn of the company's business operations and its stock price. During that same period, OVTI's quarterly GAAP EPS has risen from ($0.36) to $0.75 and the share price has gone up more than 600%.

      Yes, Tina does from time to time still post some interesting news from the world of image sensors, and I read it. But I consider her ratings of OVTI to be noise. At some point OVTI's business operations and share price will peak out and go into a long-term decline, much as Tina has been constantly predicting. But I have no idea when that will happen. Nor does she.

    • Eric, what do you think about OVTI management's comments about not having forseen the size of their market moving forward? The guy who posts as the Tinas could have been short anything and been correct when OVTI went from 10 to 4. Also if you are correct and OVTI's future is not that bright what does that have to do with the share price jumping 30%+? As my brother once asked me "do you want to be right or do you want to make money?". Good luck in your trades and don't let hatred cloud your judgement.

      • 1 Reply to skiidady
      • erickarr Feb 28, 2011 9:13 AM Flag

        ski i don't like ovt mgt. they drop the ball a lot they they did w/ wavefront coding, camcubes, and if ziptronixs is right, on bsi too.

        and the 10 to 4 was the tail end of it going from 26 to 4. it was down almost 90% when most stocks didn't even get cut in half. the tina's are the only ones besides me and a few shorts that know how to play the ups and downs of this stock. today will be more overall market window dressing for the month end. and tues, weds, and thurs may be up index activity for the first few days of a new month, but then there's an employment report on friday that i want to see.

        i'll patiently wait for this pos to max out and then i'll consider a short.

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