PRODUCT TOO EXPANSIVE CAN'T AFFORD THEM!
NOAH Averages 1070 Yuan ON SALE
That's Around 30% of Chinese average income!
However that doesn't even include add'l Yuans/$$ on upgrade and add-on courses.
NOAH's electronic dictionary(stand alone units)faces overflow of lower price competition/ knock offs (which doesn't require to pay the copyright fees), copyright laws in China aren't enforced, like jaywalking laws here.
Let say US averages 3.6k a year that's 10k! I think you can pay 1 year of mortgage on a small house or nice down payment on a CAR with that price tag.
Great idea if you have a rich High tech country! If you are poor, books are much cheaper!
"The average income of Chinese rural residents stood at 3,587 yuan (460 U.S. dollars) in 2006, indicating 900 million farmers on average live on ten yuan (1.2 dollars) one day. The figure explains the low level of consumption in the economy."
Price of NOAHEDU products ON SALE!
"Noah was awarded as �National inspection-free product� In December 2006,and as the �2006 annual sucessful enterprise of China ELP market� by CCID in January 2007. Futhermore, its color-screen learning machine titled as �New No.1 Scholar� was appraised as the �2006 annual innovative products of China ELP market�.
From 26th Jan on., to celebrate Noah� three grand awards, on the occasion of Spring Festival, Noah�s �New No.1 Scholar� learning device and its most popular types are on sale and some new products are even on market with presents.
New No.1 Scholar� learning device collection
NP560+ (new year special offer) :1298
NP560T (new year special offer):998
NP560T (new year special offer):898
New No.1 Scholar� color-screen learning device collection
NP860 (new year special offer):1498 NP810 (new year special offer):1198
electronic dictionary collection
Longman� Noah�s co-brand-- NP9588 (new year special offer):1298
audio electronic dictionary collection
NTV518 (new year special offer):598 NTV418+ (new year special offer): 498
electronic dictionary star collection
NH6080 (new year special offer): 198
From now to Feb. 28th, the one who buys Noah�s color-screen �New No.1 Scholar� learning device can choose at will one of these presents for New Year��Eye Healthcare Device�, fashionable suitcase and the DVD gift set of �Encyclopedia�, each of which is worth 398 yuan. Customers buying NP890+ and NP560+ can acquire a VIP card set of multimedia learning coursewares of the �advanced class� by Noah Education Institute. For more information, please consult the local Noah�s counters. " http://www.noahtech.com.cn/index.php/News/Show/id/485/List/Company/lu/en
I warned you, book value on this stock is 0.39 cents! Morning Star look it up. ALL HYPE! Lower the NOAH product price by half the yuan, maybe we have something around $10 at best!
They need more than just one sales branch in the two largest cities (richest target market) in china, none in Hong Kong!
Once the revenue stops from those one time purchase high priced NoahED units, all the lessons/software could be bought on the street corner for a buck!
watch and learn.
HONG KONG ALREADY SPEAK ENGLISH, THAT'S FUNNY. Do you know what you are buying? Kids learning tool that costs 1/3 of average Chinese income, when books are cheap in China, educational book prices is subsidized by the central gov't which guarantees lowest prices. NOAH teaches ALL subjects, not just English. However it's 1/3 of income, especially when you take hong kong out of the formula.
Don't get us wrong. Are you familiar with China?
3,587 yuan is the average income for Chinese RURAL residents, NOT for CITY residents. For an average city residents, 1,000 yuan is nothing for them. Just go and visit any supermarket or restaurant in a Chinese city, you will see people there shopping and consuming just like crazy.
From education perspective, Chinese parents are normally willing to pay whatever they can afford to any education related cost. They pay thousands of yuan to hire private teahchers after school, to send their kids to summer camps, even pay much higher tuition to private school. If NOAHEDU products are really helpful, they will have no hesitate to buy them.
First, I do not own NED, I been to most major stores in shanghai, I bought an electronic dictionary in Shanghai, I shopped around last time I was there for 3 months. All my family is still there, true you have people in the cities who can afford them, much like my family could, however, have you seen the poors in the city? 70% of them can't really afford them.
I don't care where you live, for 95 percent Chinese, 1000-1500 Yuan(30-200%+ of AI) that's a lot of money! For about 19 peasants/labor is needed for 1 high income Chinese (target market). look it up.
No branch sales office in HONG KONG??!? BIGGEST CHINESE INCOME CITY BY FAR! 1 office each in Beijing and Shanghai, 2 other POWERHOUSE INCOME CITIES, that the other 2%. All other cities combined are average at best.
I love China and US, There are always risks, but there are flaws in their game plan. Small caps gets punished in bear markets, there are plenty China bash going around, just don't want good people get hurt, I would buy some put options to protect against this and double down. Economy is trending down, less risk tolerant = less investments in NED, naked shorts will swarm. They will rule and you will see 100 orders selling at a bid down. If they just miss one of their numbers it's a nose dive.
$12 target 100rmb/7.9
we will see.
Did you listen to the conference call? The revenue is there, and it continues to grow. The numbers don't lie. Additionally, they are opening learning centers this coming year, thus creating a whole new revenue stream. This puppy is going up and up. You can't deny the results.
WRONG! Writer of puts profits from option's premium, hopes the price doesn't change or UP. Buyer of the put pays the premium and cover when price DROPS below the break even price, therefore PROFIT! Why would the writer of a put push the stock down and LOSE money, FREE MONEY!
Therefore you buy put options to protect your positions, "lock" in your loss.
Writer of the call will drive down the price.
Maybe you should seek a professional.
Would you trust a kid (k-12) in public(i.e. school) with 1/3 of annual income in the size of a iphone? it could also be easily lost or damaged by a kid.
Something tells me it's not a great idea to make a portable learning device for a CHILD that cost 1/3 of the income, except you can't let them take it anywhere. ESPECIALLY WHEN BOOKS ARE CHEAP and easily replaceable!
Happy Chinese new year!
down 20 more percent since my last warning, still doubt the truth? I can't even pick a bottom right now, EDU sells BOOKS that's why they are going up still. Do not compare the two companies (NED & EDU), it's like comparing RC cola co to coca cola co! There are inflation crisis looming in china, it's surfacing again and again, today the Chinese gov't had to step in this time! that's big, when was the last time they done so?? beware. good luck all!
How much money did you lose on this - fareastkill...? I've made 15% in two weeks on this baby and will double my long position. I just love this stock. It's room to grow. My target will be 20's by the next ER.