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Santarus, AŞ Message Board

  • crecy_war_knight crecy_war_knight Mar 15, 2012 11:15 AM Flag

    Big HMO will change Metformin Recommedation

    ...from short acting to long acting ...I can't say any more. This is not secret knowledge. This is just a coincidence that I bought this stock.

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    • Well now don't I feel silly. I relied on someone's explanation who also let someone else do her due diligence You are so right: that is what "efficacy" is all about, right? Damn you're good Kitty. Thanks to both of you for educating me this afternoon. I think I should double down; huh?

      • 1 Reply to khumbu61
      • Yes, and with the E-vouchers, more who need Glumetza can get it. Efficacy is improved and there are other advantages like less side effects and less frequent dosing.

        I think it is a good long term stock to have for those like us who can handle the ups and downs without losing too much sleep.

        I said long ago, an enterprise value at near 1X sales is a good time to buy small pharma. The sales projections are near doubling. $118 million sales for 2011 (trading at around $3 per share for most of last year the enterprise value was $125 million (ratio = 1.06).

        Now, sales estimated at $200 million for 2012, today's enterprise valuation is ($5.29 (closing price 3/16/12 X 62 million shares - $58 million in cash = $270), ratio for 2012 = $270/$200 = 1.35 today

        and sales estimated at $252 million for 2013 at today's price the ratio is only 1.07.

        The management here has really helped us greatly by drastically building the current product sales and we should be trading at and enterprise valuation/sales ratio of at least 2 and some would argue more than 2X the 2013 numbers.

        This stock is worth at least $9 with the sales / earnings momentum. Add the pipeline and we should easily see $12 in a year or two and maybe even more.

        Don't sell too cheaply, SNTS longs. Nothing goes straight up and somebody is buying if you are selling. We are in a much better position now than one year ago, even at the current higher price of $5.29. The evidence is right here as I showed with the above ratios.

        If things go well later this year with Uceris and Rhucin, then we can look up. Only 7 months until Uceris PDUFA. For many of us that bought lower that is not much time to extend our wait to realize more gains.


    • Is that right? I thought it just permits a full dosage for those whose GI doesn't tolerate the active ingredient. I have not understood that it extends signficantly the period over which the ingredient is absorbed. As of a year or so ago (probably longer), it was not in United Health's formulary of reimbursable prescription pharmaceuticals, which seemed peculiar to me. Extended release would seem compelling.

    • You are very wise, SIR. This is a tiny baby that will double in size in not to long. She is eating up market share. LOL