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Santarus, AŞ Message Board

  • earnings_clue earnings_clue Apr 30, 2013 11:26 PM Flag


    Should I share my research for free. I already own all I want to of the stock and figure anyone reading this must be smart enough to do their own DD before buying or shorting the stock.
    I find it hard to believe this has not been a topic of great interest for the board and the analysts.
    First I will give you some information and then let someone else fill in the blanks. When PAR was forced to take the generic Zegrid off the market, sales were about equal between PAR and Santarus. Each had roughly $8.5 million in sales per quarter. Math...$17 million a quarter at the old generic price.
    How much of an increase in price of Zegrid did Santarus make?
    Considering that Santarus converted all PAR prescriptions to their books, what are the future sales numbers at the new price?
    The details that have certain investors stumped is the amount of Zegrid in the pharmacy's at the old price that had to be burnt off. Not just PAR but Santarus also had a lot of low priced generic in the pharmacy's that had to be burnt off.
    What do you think the sales of Zegrid will be this ending quarter?

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    • so Earnings, are we able to entice you to share ?

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • 1. I believe it is spelled Zegerid.
      2. Qtr./Qtr. growth is now closer to 20%. This is due to results from promotions and also demand for the product.

      I believe Q1 will positively impacted by an increase of 2M sales in Zegerid. Uceris should add another 600K in Q1. Without the other products, I expect a 2.6 million icrease in sales. Should all otheRX's meet sales goals, this quarter's Rvs should be around 77M to 78M.

      • 1 Reply to tradingbasis
      • Zegerid price was doubled once Par pulled the generic. If combined sales were $17 million, then under the new price sales would be $34 million. In last quarter conference call they stated that old inventory would take a while to burn off. Generic was pulled in September and there was probably 1 1/2 months of inventory at lower price in the pipeline. So last quarter was the first big increase in Zegerid sales. The first quarter will be the second large increase in Zegerid sales. After that you will see a gradual increase as sales expand. I expect sales will be in the range of $26 to $30 million for the first quarter. And profit margins are 90% on Zegerid.

        Also, they book sales when shipped. Uceris sales should be a couple million in the first quarter. They have a $20 million accounting entry on the books for possible returns of their drugs..

    • they hit almost 21 million last Q, hoping for around 28-30 million this time.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • I think it will 10% Quarterly increase. Remember SNTS stopped promoting Zegrid for several years and now only they have returned promoting it.