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Santarus, AŞ Message Board

  • uplatas uplatas May 23, 2013 11:04 AM Flag

    SNTS Q2 2013

    without Uceris $75M per quarter
    Management said 900 prescriptions per week which translates as $15M per quarter

    $75M + $15M = $90M

    what do you think ? what are the analyst figures ?

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    • SNTS reported second quarter non-GAAP adjusted EPS of $0.31 after the close Tuesday, compared to $0.10 in the previous year. The consensus estimate was for EPS of $0.18. The company now expects to report full year non-GAAP adjusted EPS of $1.21 to $1.26, up from prior guidance of $1.03 to $1.15. The consensus estimate is for EPS of $0.85. The stock is now up 2.63 on 119K shares.

      Santarus declined during the first half of the morning Tuesday and finished with a loss of $0.36 at $24.87. The stock closed near the middle of a 1-month range

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • Total revenues of $89.4 million grew 89% over prior year period
      SAN DIEGO, Aug 06, 2013 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- --Raises 2013 financial outlook to include total revenues of $355 million to $360 million, and non-GAAP adjusted earnings of $97 million to $101 million
      Santarus, Inc. (SNTS) today reported financial and operating results for the quarter ended June 30, 2013. Key financial results include:
      -- Total revenues of $89.4 million grew 89% compared with total revenues of $47.2 million in the second quarter of 2012
      -- Non-GAAP adjusted earnings were $24.3 million and diluted non-GAAP adjusted earnings per share (EPS) were $0.31 in the second quarter of 2013 compared with non-GAAP adjusted earnings of $7.1 million and diluted non-GAAP adjusted EPS of $0.10 for the second quarter of 2012
      -- Net income of $73.5 million, or $0.94 diluted EPS, which included a $5.0 million expense for a success-based regulatory milestone, and a one-time income tax benefit of $54.9 million, or $0.70 per share fully diluted, resulting from the release of the company's valuation allowance for deferred tax assets as further described below. For the second quarter of 2012, net income was $3.4 million, or $0.05 diluted EPS.
      -- Cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments were $142.7 million as of June 30, 2013, an increase of $48.0 million compared with $94.7 million at December 31, 2012

    • If this number hit then surely SNTS will rocket to huge gap up to 20-25% up at open.

    • I got them at 88-89mil the most. Over 90 would be very surprising.

    • as per kitty on july 9 -- Uceris scripts tracking nicely 1141 on week 19. Of course numbers are growing (so this estimate is conservative), but if you simply use 1141 X 52 weeks = 59332 scripts at $1300 = $77 million if sales in 1 year if sales were locked at the week 19 rate. We already have a $100 million dollar selling drug in Uceris for 2014 and beyond that is still growing.

    • Any analysts upgrades before earnings?

    • Yes, very close to $90M Q2

    • Can someone post the revised consensus and analyst expectations for Q2 2013
      I see Uplatas has Consensus 82.43M (High 86.4-Low 80)
      eps 0.14 (0.13-0.15)
      and moosa_sagia
      Consensus 83.7 (High 89.3-Low 80) eps 0.17 (0.13-0.24)

      which one is it ?

    • From Yahoo
      Consensus 82.43M (High 86.4-Low 80)
      eps 0.14 (0.13-0.15)

      2013 Target =$330 - $340
      Sees FY13 EPS of $1.03 - $1.15, versus prior guidance of $0.92 - 1.00 and the Street consensus of $0.76. Also sees FY13 revenue of $330M -$340M, versus prior guidance of $320M -325M and the consensus of $339.3M.

      Q1 EPS of $0.32 beats by $0.18. Revenue of $79.44M (+73% Y/Y) beats by $4.7M.


      Q1 2013 Sale Figures
      GLUMETZA $ 41.5
      ZEGERID $ 24.6
      UCERIS $ 6.6
      CYCLOSET $ 3.9
      FENOGLIDE $ 1.9
      Other revenue $ 0.9
      TOTAL $ 79.4

      Q2 2013 Sale Figures
      GLUMETZA $ 41.5
      ZEGERID $ 24.6
      UCERIS $ ?????????????????????????????????
      CYCLOSET $ 3.9
      FENOGLIDE $ 1.9
      Other revenue $ 0.9
      TOTAL $ ?????????????????

      UCERIS 12 weeks x 1000 scripts x $1800 = $21M

      TOTAL = $73M + 20M (Uceris) = 93M

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • Consensus 83.7 (High 89.3-Low 80) eps 0.17 (0.13-0.24). I think Uceris over 20 but Zegerid is going down, 90M is a realistic number but i can be wrong. Is too early to talk, we will see new slides..

      • 2 Replies to mossa_saggia
      • I don't think zegerid is trending down and I hear that zegerid is not only a good selling partner with Uceris but also a good fit for Cycloset because metformin that is usually prescribed to diabetics is infamous for stomach pain, nausea with vomiting. This will be exploited more in Q3 though.

        Q1 Zegerid sales numbers were handicapped by both a late start to the relaunch and a new sales group getting acllimated to the products and their doctors.

        Zegerid has good margins and I think we can see a good uptrend in Q2 and going forward. Another reason, is that the sales group has been focused on selling both Zegerid and Uceris, so we should see a Q2 benefit in sales growth for both.

        I personally believe we will reach closer to 95M to 100M as Uceris and Zegerid have been very well received. The only possible issue I see with the Rev numbers is lack of focus on the other drugs sales could handicap revenues. The other issue I see is EPS being impacted by the milestone payment for Ruconest.

        Sentiment: Buy

      • on what basis did you say Zegerid is going down ? Q1 is usually weak and slow quarter for all biopharma companies......

        why do you think Zegerid is going down in the absence of a generic ?

 
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