I just don't see much downside below the fifteen-dollar range, though I disagree with the opinion that this HAS to be a hot game-buying season. Most of the "A" titles (Madden being the exception) seem not to have generated the excitement needed for a "big seller" type Christmas season.
I got out above 17 again, and I think I'm going to sit this one out. I think $14-16 is more likely than $21-23 for a while. The potential danger is a saturated marketplace sitting back and waiting for the next-gen consoles.